NHL ‘Over’ Teams Through December 13, 2018

We started our discussion of NHL team total valuation yesterday by looking at the teams that have played the most ‘Unders’ to this point in the 2018-2019 season. In this article we’ll head in the other direction and look at teams that have played the most games ‘Over’ the total. Understanding this sort of team tendency is an important concept in any sport but it’s especially so in the NHL given hockey’s relatively infrequent scores and the low margin for error it creates.

On balance, I’d much rather look for opportunities to play games ‘Under’ the total than ‘Over’. The reason for this is simple—in today’s NHL the best teams play good defense. They may have potent offensive capabilities and the ability to score goals if necessary but their preferred style is to control tempo, limit shots, and try to thwart what their opponents try to do. Trying to outscore your opponent every night in wide open, video game style hockey just doesn’t work in the NHL at this juncture. The teams that try to do that are typically those who don’t have any options. More specifically, they’re teams that don’t have the defense and/or goaltending to win any other way.

The top three ‘Over’ teams in the NHL all share a common characteristic—they’re three of the bottom four teams in the Eastern Conference. The information below includes all game action through December 12, 2018.

NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE ‘OVER’ TEAMS

OTTAWA SENATORS (21 OV 9 UN 2 PUSH)

All of the top ‘Over’ teams in this article share a similar modus operandi—they can score goals and have lousy defensive stats. Ottawa has the worst scoring defense in the NHL allowing 3.91 goals per game but that’s definitely not atypical of this trio. The three teams on this list are in the bottom four of goals allowed per game. Ottawa also allows more shots on goal than any other team in the league—in fact, their 38.2 shots against average is nearly three more per game than the second worst team (Anaheim allowing 35.4 shots against). Throw in the #29 penalty kill in the NHL and it’s apparent that the only way Ottawa can win is by outscoring their opponent in a high scoring contest. The Senators currently have the #9 goal scoring offense in the NHL but what could be a potential problem is their shot output—a relatively anemic 29.4 per game which ranks #25 in the NHL. The power play is just so so ranking #13. Ottawa is scoring a decent amount of goals now but given their shots and power play statistics that could dry up quickly.

NEW JERSEY DEVILS (18 OV 9 UN 2 PUSH)

The Devils’ are having issues with what has been a rare strength in recent years—goaltending. Formerly steady Cory Schneider has looked awful this year. He had hip surgery in the offseason and has played sparingly. When he plays, he’s played poorly. Schneider has started only six games for a 0-5-1 record and a 4.38 goals against average. That’s forced Keith Kinkaid to assume the bulk of the workload starting 23 games. He’s got a record of 10-8-5 and a 3.03 GAA. The Devils aren’t that bad in allowing opponent shots ranking #18 in the league (31.7 shots per game). They’ve worked hard on the offensive end and get 33.1 shots per game (tied for #5 in the NHL) but the bad news is that a disproportionate percentage of those shots aren’t going in. New Jersey averages just 3.03 goals per game good for 16th in the NHL and their power play is just average (19.4% for 17th). The penalty kill has been solid (#10 in the league at 81.7%) but until they get their goaltending issues under control and improve on that brutal 3.59 team GAA (#28 in the league) they’re going to lose a lot of games and play a lot of ‘Overs’.

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS (19 OV 10 UN 2 PUSH)

The Flyers have also had their share of goaltending injuries this year. Here’s the story—Brian Elliott last played in mid-November and has been out with a lower body injury. The good news is that his return to action is imminent. The bad news is that Michal Neuvirth—who annually seems to play out of his mind during the Stanley Cup playoffs—has missed almost the entire season with a groin injury. He thankfully doesn’t have any apparent issues from his scary mid-game collapse last April. Neuvirth got his first start since last season on December 9 and was pulled after allowing 3 goals on 10 shots. He says that he was just rusty and that there was no issues with his previously injured groin. Right now, 24 year old Anthony Stolarz is the Flyers’ starting goaltender. Hard to say where the Flyers go from here—if Elliott comes back and plays anywhere near his ability the goaltending has to show improvement. Neuvirth is a very capable backup. For now, it’s a mess and the Flyers have gone Over in 7 of their last 10.