Los Angeles Lakers Limp Into 2019 Without LeBron, Rondo

When the Los Angeles Lakers acquired LeBron James as a free agent on July 1 expectations of fans and the media ran sky high. Many expected the ‘new showtime’ era with LeBron leading the Lakers into an inevitable matchup with the Golden State Warriors for Western Conference supremacy. It hasn’t quite worked out that way. With the caveat that it’s still early in the season and the NBA standings are still tightly packed (only 3.5 games separate the top eight Western Conference teams) the Lakers have been good though not anywhere near great in the early going. They entered the final week of 2018 on a 5-5 run in their last 10 games and will face a very challenging stretch ahead due to injuries to LeBron and point guard Rajon Rondo.

As of December 27, 2019 the Los Angeles Lakers are 20-15 for a .571 winning percentage which puts them into a tie for 5th in the Western Conference with the Portland TrailBlazers. Los Angeles is 12-5 at The Staples Center though only 8-10 on the road. To be fair, it’s tough for anyone to win on the road in the NBA and only one Western Conference team is above .500 away from home (Oklahoma City at 9-8). The expectation, however, is that the Lakers will be above .500 on the road and if they’re to have a legitimate shot at the Western Conference title that’s a reasonable goal. Keep in mind that last year Houston went 31-10 away from home with Golden State not far behind at 29-12.

The reality is that the Lakers should have no problem making the playoffs but more problematic is their statistical performance. LeBron is noted for his exceptional play at both ends of the court but so far the Lakers have been decidedly mediocre on offense and defense. They’re a respectable 9th in points per game (113.3) but that’s far from championship level sitting a tenth of a point behind Charlotte and sixth tenths ahead of Washington. Defense has been a bigger problem and the Lakers are tied for #16 in the league at 111.1 points per game with Portland, Cleveland and Minnesota. The plus two point differential isn’t bad, weighing in at #9 in the NBA but well below Western Conference contenders including Denver (+5.3) and Oklahoma City (+6.1). They’re nowhere near the top two plus/minus teams in the NBA which are the Toronto Raptors (+6.6) and the Milwaukee Bucks (+8.8). Not coincidentally, the Bucks and Raptors have the two best records in the NBA.

Fortunately, neither LeBron or Rondo’s injury looks particularly serious. LeBron is listed as ‘day to day’ with a left groin strain. Head coach Luke Walton makes clear that ‘we’re obviously not going to rush him back’ which is the smart play given the length of the NBA season and the nature of groin injuries. Right now, the expectation is that he’ll miss a few games. Rondo’s injury is a bit more severe—he had surgery today to repair a ligament in his right ring finger and is expected to miss four to five weeks. Rondo’s veteran leadership at the point is important but the Lakers have decent depth at the position. Versatile Lonzo Ball will take over Rondo’s starting spot and more playing time for the highly touted UCLA product should benefit both player and team. Brandon Ingram might get some time running the offense as well and at 6’9” could create some significant matchup issues for opponents.

NBA futures odds haven’t seen much of an impact from the injury. Los Angeles is still a +700 second choice to win the Western Conference well behind the favored Golden State Warriors at -240 and just ahead of the Houston Rockets at +800. The Lakers are +1600 to win the NBA Championship which puts them and the Milwaukee Bucks in the table with the 5th shortest odds. Interestingly, the Houston Rockets are ahead of the Lakers at +1200 despite being slightly behind Los Angeles in the Western Conference odds. Golden State is a -150 favorite to repeat as NBA champion.