Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs Face Off In AFC Divisional Playoff Action

NFL playoff action continues this weekend with a pair of games on Saturday and two more on Sunday. We took a look at Sunday’s AFC Divisional Round game between the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Chargers earlier this week. Now we’ll turn our attention to the Saturday AFC playoff matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Indianapolis Colts. It’s tough to figure why the Colts aren’t getting more respect. Sure, they got off to a shabby start this season losing five of their first six games. That’s going to happen in the NFL, however, and particularly when a new head coach like Frank Reich—and a rookie head coach at that—is learning his way and trying to remake a team in his image. Earlier this week, the Cleveland Browns named their interim offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens as the team’s new head coach. Kitchens definitely deserves the shot but I mention him here due to his ‘quote for the ages’ when a media type question his readiness to be a head coach in the National Football League: “Who the hell’s ready to be a head coach?”

Horse players often say that they’re going to ‘draw a line’ through specific races when evaluating past performances. This is due to their opinion that extenuating circumstances—pace or style of the race, track conditions, etc.–had more to do with the outcome than a horse’s intrinsic abilities. In the same way, I’m willing to ‘draw a line’ through the Colts’ 1-5 start due to the ‘Kitchens theorem’ outlined above. Reich may not have been ready to be a head coach at the start of the season but he sure learned quickly. Since opening the season 1-5 the Indianapolis Colts have gone 10-1 SU and 7-3-1 ATS. More impressive than their W/L record could be their statistical performance since their substandard start to the season. The Colts’ defense—never a strong suit of the team since the move to Indy—has improved dramatically and held 5 of their last 6 opponents to 21 points or less. For the season, Indy outscored opponents by 101 points. Quarterback Andrew Luck gave notice that rumors of his demise were just that and threw for 39 TD passes good for second in the NFL.

Of course, it’s worth noting that Luck didn’t finish anywhere near the top of the touchdown pass table. That was Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes who was nearly unstoppable during the regular season throwing for 50 TD passes and 5,097 yards. He’s got some dangerous targets to throw to, in particular wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce. The problem with Kansas City is their defense. It’s not very good. #31 in total defense allowing 405.5 yards per game, #31 in passing defense (273.4 YPG) , #27 in rush defense (132.1 yards per game) and #24 in scoring defense (26.3 PPG). Their best defensive strength might be their pass rush but they could be in for a long day against a nasty Indy defensive line that now ranks among the best in football. At any rate, the Colts allowed fewer sacks than any team in the NFL this season and didn’t allow a sack in the 21-7 win at Houston last week.

It’s conventional wisdom that Andrew Luck struggles when he faces a lot of pressure. The opposite is true, however, and when Luck has the protection he needs to give him time to throw he picks apart defenses like few quarterbacks we’ve seen since his predecessor Peyton Manning. One component of Mahomes’ success early on was the ‘element of surprise’ but as defensive coordinators learn more about him he’ll find it tougher to dominate. One strategy always works against dominant offensive threats—a ball control offense that keeps the threat off the field. I would be remiss to not mention the Chiefs’ lack of postseason success going 1-11 SU and 0-6 SU at home. Hard to justify Kansas City laying a NFL football pointspread of -5.5 points given the situation and opponent. Colts win outright.

BET INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +5.5 OVER KANSAS CITY CHIEFS