Bellafina Favored In Friday’s Highly Competitive Kentucky Oaks

For a long time, the Kentucky Oaks was an obvious ‘opening act’ for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby. That’s no longer the case. While the Derby is the biggest horse race in North America–at least among casual fans–the Oaks is a big deal in it’s own right. The race has attracted well over 100,000 fans for nearly twenty years setting an all time record of 124,589 in 2016. Last year, 113,510 fans jammed into Churchill Downs for the event. The Kentucky Oaks is usually the third most attended thoroughbred stakes race of the year behind only the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes. The 2019 race could challenge the all time record as projections are for over 120,000 fans.

This year will be the 145th running of the Kentucky Oaks. The Oaks is a Grade 1 stakes race for 3 year old thoroughbred fillies held every year at Churchill Downs on the day before the Kentucky Derby. This year there are 14 fillies entered in the race with two ‘alternates’ that will move into the field should there be a scratch by 9:00 AM Eastern Time on Friday. An interesting quirk in this year’s running is that one of the ‘alternates’ is considered to be a top challenger for race favorite Bellafina. Alternate Dunbar Road was the 5-1 second choice on the Churchill Downs morning line behind race favorite Bellafina at 2-1. If Dunbar Road does make the race she’ll have to start from the outside which would increase her degree of difficulty.

Bellafina is considered the horse to beat in the race though she is something of an enigma. Like many quality California trained horses, the question remains about her ability to perform outside of the Golden State. Looking at her entire body of work, Bellafina has been extremely impressive. Six wins in eight starts is hard to argue with. She’s looked very good during the Oaks preps races with three wins in the Santa Ynez (G2), the Las Virgenes (G2) and the Santa Anita Oaks (G1). The only two times that she failed to win were her debut race in July of 2018 at Los Alamitos and in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies when she finished a disappointing fourth. Her substandard showing in the Breeders’ Cup is of particular significance since it was run at Churchill Downs and is the only other time that Bellafina has raced outside of California. Another concern–her Oaks prep races have had small fields but will be in a big field here.

Ten of the 14 projected starters have previously raced at Churchill Downs. Bellafina’s two biggest challengers could be Champagne Anyone and Restless Rider, both of whom were 6-1 on the race morning line. Also in the field at 8-1 on the morning line is Jaywalk who was the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. The expectation is that Bellafina’s jockey Flavian Prat will look to stay just off the pace in the early going. In most races, Bellafina has been on the lead but with so much legit speed in the Oaks that is likely not a good place for her. You can expect her to be joined by Restless Rider while Champagne Anyone is more of a closer that will be well off the pace early. Jaywalk will likely be part of the early lead–she won the BC Juvenile Fillies ‘wire to wire’.

Betting a race like this can be a challenge so let’s take a close look at the Kentucky Oaks betting odds. Bellafina is definitely a filly to reckon with but at the 2-1 price there’s just not much value. There’s also not much interest in trying to back one of the horses expected to set what should be a blistering early pace. Restless Rider looks to have a perfect running style for this race though her outside #14 post starting position is a concern. Then again, it’s less of a concern for a horse that doesn’t need to be on or just off the pace to compete. Champagne Anyone has a better start position but at the same price on the morning line Restless Rider looks to be the better horse. Also worth a shot is the 15-1 priced Street Band coming off a career best performance in winning the Fair Grounds Oaks in late March.

BET RESTLESS RIDER 6-1
BET STREET BAND 15-1

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