Milwaukee Bucks Return Home Hoping To Tame Feisty Raptors

It might be premature to suggest that the Milwaukee Bucks are ‘slumping’ but based on how good and how consistent they were during the regular season it has to be considered. The Bucks looked to be in cruise control after they opened up a 2-0 lead on the Toronto Raptors but now return home tied 2-2. The Game 3 loss was as much a result of the Bucks’ poor play but Game 4 was a very strong win for Toronto. Kawhi Leonard didn’t put up the insane personal numbers he has for most of the playoffs but he didn’t need to–he got plenty of help from his teammates particularly Kyle Lowry who led the team with 25 points. Overall, six Raptors scored in double figures.

The problem is that with the exception of Leonard, none of the Raptors can be counted on from game to game. The dynamic so far in the playoffs has been extremely clear–when Leonard gets help, the Raptors win. When he doesn’t, they lose. Leonard will need all the help he can get if Toronto is going to upset Milwaukee since it looks like Giannis Antetokounmpo is regaining his all world form. In the previous two games *he’s* the one who needed help but after a poor showing in Game 3 he bounced back for a 25 point 10 rebound 5 assist statline in Game 4. He still looked tentative on defense, however, and the crux of his excellence is his strong play on both ends of the floor.

One area in which Milwaukee has been excellent all season long is in their ability to come back strong after a nasty loss. This season after a straight up loss by 10+ points they’re a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS. After an upset loss as a favorite they’re 19-0 SU/16-3 ATS. After a poor defensive effort where they allow 115 or more points they’re 21-6 SU/20-7 ATS. This resilience is one of the reasons they’ve been the best pointspread team in the NBA this year. The Bucks have been the most profitable NBA betting team this season and it’s not even close. Milwaukee is 57-35-3 against the number for +18.5 units of profit or nearly 10 units more than #2 Dallas at +8.6 units. Toronto has been overvalued all season and they’re a bottom tier pointspread team going 46-50-2 against the number losing -9 units for their financial backers.

Toronto also has a tendency to regress somewhat after a bad performance. They did take impressive wins back to back in Toronto but year to date they’re 18-20 ATS after a win by 10+ points and 21-26 after scoring 115+ points. They’ve also shown a tendency for their defensive intensity to slip after playing a series of high scoring games. After 3 or more consecutive ‘Overs’ the Raptors are 4-11 ATS. Many handicappers–myself included–have been waiting for the Raptors to show some championship pedigree. They’ve been good at times but more often than not it’s Kawhi Leonard carrying the team. Milwaukee has been very good–and very consistent–all long. Expect them to bounce back with a strong effort on their home court.

BET MILWAUKEE BUCKS -7 OVER TORONTO RAPTORS

For up to the minute NBA playoff betting odds and props, follow BetOnline.ag on Twitter!