Max Holloway Defends Featherweight Title Against Frankie Edgar at UFC 240

Frankie Edgar burst into the elite level as a MMA fighter back in 2010 when he upset the legendary B.J. Penn in back-to-back unanimous decision victories. In the process he became UFC Lightweight Champion and held the title until losing to Benson Henderson in February 2012. He’s now trying to pull another huge upset in a bout against another highly respected champion as he challenges for Max Holloway’s Featherweight Championship in the main event of UFC 240. The event takes place at the Rogers Place arena in Edmonton, Alberta on Saturday, July 27. Preliminaries will air on ESPN and ESPN+ in the United States with the main card on PPV.

Max Holloway enters his UFC 240 matchup against Frankie Edgar off a loss but it’s one that you simply can’t downgrade him for. In fact, he may have raised his stature by moving up in weight to fight Dustin Poirier for the interim Lightweight title. Holloway gave a very good account of himself against the naturally larger opponent before losing a unanimous decision in one of the best UFC fights of the year. He’ll move back to his preferred weight to defend his Featherweight Championship and given his exceptional form over the past few years will be a very tough test for Frankie Edgar. Before his loss to Dustin Poirier he had won 13 consecutive fights dating back to an August 2013 loss to Conor McGregor. Making this run more impressive–10 of the victories in this streak came via stoppage.

With his victories over B.J. Penn in 2010 Frankie Edgar shocked the MMA universe. At the time, Penn was considered among the best all around fighters in the sport. Edgar was 11-1 at the time and respected for his toughness and work ethic but not thought to be of the same championship pedigree as Penn. He faced Gray Maynard in two tough fights as Lightweight Champion earning a draw and a victory before dropping the belt to Benson Henderson. He would lose a rematch to Henderson followed by a loss to Jose Aldo.

Since that point, Edgar has generally fought well winning 8 of his last 10 bouts against solid competition. He hasn’t been successful stepping up in class, however, losing to Jose Aldo in a rematch and to a then-undefeated Bryan Ortega. There are other signs that Edgar could be on the downside of his career. In his first 20 fights no one other than Gray Maynard was able to knock him down. In his last four fights he’s been floored by Jeremy Stephens and Bryan Ortega. Both have good power but at age 37 it’s necessary to consider the scenario that Edgar’s chin and/or striking defense might be deteriorating.

That could be a problem as Holloway is one of the best strikers in the UFC. He doesn’t have much in the way of ‘stopping power’ but he’s an exceptionally busy and accurate fighter. In his case, it also appears that a ‘good offense’ is an effective defense–he doesn’t absorb a lot of punishment despite not demonstrating much in the way of technical defensive skills. Edgar is the more adept wrestler and his takedown ability will likely be Holloway’s biggest challenge. That being said, Holloway has done a good job staying off his back stopping 83% of opponent takedown attempts. If he does get Holloway to the mat the champion should be able to defend as long as necessary. Holloway has four career submission victories but all by extremely basic holds (rear naked choke twice, guillotine choke, neck crank).

The primary issue for Edgar is that he would in theory prefer to keep the fight standing (6 TKO wins) but that’s where Holloway wants the fight. At this stage of his career, Edgar is facing an elite level striker in his competitive prime that is also ten years younger and five inches taller. There’s every reason to think that Edgar will be competitive and turn in a strong effort but at 37 he’ll have to overcome a fighter’s worst enemy–age–as well as an extremely tough opponent in Holloway. Nothing but respect for Edgar but even with the ‘chalky’ UFC betting odds on the fight I want to back the champion. Holloway wins this, most likely by unanimous decision.

BET MAX HOLLOWAY -375 OVER FRANKIE EDGAR

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