Second Democratic Primary Debate Should (Hopefully) Serve To Thin a Crowded Field

By BetOnline July 27, 2019

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When I was a kid, my dad used to take me on business trips with him and we’d often end up in South Florida. This was the heyday of jai alai’s popularity as a spectator sport and parimutuel gambling event with thousands watching every night at places like Dania Jai Alai and Miami Jai Alai. We’d go watch the action and my dad would place a few wagers. I’m not ashamed to admit now that I was completely lost. Jai Alai is a very fast game as it is, and even with a program it was impossible for me to keep track of all of the helmeted players with Hispanic surnames. Even so, it was extremely entertaining to watch, the players showed ridiculous skill and the exciting atmosphere was among my first gambling experiences.

I get a similar feeling watching the Democratic Presidential Debates minus the part about being ‘very fast’ and ‘entertaining’–or the players showing ‘ridiculous skill’. The Democrats have spent the last few years seething over their opportunity to go after incumbent Republican Donald Trump but now that they’ve got the chance they’re going about it in the worst way possible. There are so many candidates that there is not only a ‘cut’ implemented to keep out the most marginal entrants but they’re being forced to split the debate into two parts on two nights just to keep the process from become a complete fiasco. The ‘cut’ requirements are pretty lenient–a candidate must show at least 1% support in three independent state and national polls as determined by the Democratic National Committee and/or receive at least 65,000 unique donations including at least 200 from 20 different states.

This time around, five candidates..uh…’missed the cut’. Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton, Miramar, Florida, Mayor Wayne Messam and former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel won’t be able to participate in this debate. Ditto former Pennsylvania congressman Joe Sestak and philanthropist Tom Steyer both of whom announced their candidacies during the past month. Even better are the nearly incomprehensible tiebreaker rules which emphasize polling over donations–rules which Mike Gravel’s supporters contend are being arbitrarily used to keep him out of the debates. They might be doing him a favor keeping him away from this train wreck. The qualification requirements will be raised for the third debates on September 12 and 13 (at least two percent poll support and/or at least 130,000 unique donations, including at least 400 from 40 different states).

And check out the rules for the debate: Candidates will be given 60 seconds to respond to moderator questions and 30 additional seconds for rebuttals. Any candidate attacked by name by another candidate will be given 30 seconds with which to rebut his adversary. Second debate network host CNN has given candidates a few hints of what *won’t* ‘be on the test’–they won’t ask ‘raise-your-hand’ questions or go down the lineup with the same question giving every candidate a few seconds to answer. Both of these question formats proved problematic for candidates during the first debate (hosted by NBC). Finally, CNN will also penalize candidates who repeatedly interrupt other candidates.

Thankfully, over the past few years political betting has grown in popularity which is the only justification to pay attention to any of this at all. You’ll find a wide variety of political betting odds for your wagering enjoyment with the most popular being the ‘futures odds’ for the 2020 Democratic Nominee and the winner of the 2020 Presidential Election. Right now, Kamala Harris is a +300 favorite to win the nomination but Elizabeth Warren (+350), Joe Biden (+350) and ‘lovable curmudgeon’ Bernie Sanders (+450) are right behind. When it comes to the general election, Donald Trump is favored to win once again and is a -110 favorite. Harris (+700), Warren (+900), Biden (+900) and Sanders (+1000) have considerable ground to make up.

Here are the lineups for the two debate nights: