Value Betting On The NFL 2019 AP Coach of the Year Prop

We’ve spent the last couple of weeks looking at some of the many NFL proposition odds available for the upcoming season. Most recently, we looked at the market for the first coach to be fired or resign in the forthcoming NFL season and now we’ll head to the other extreme. The AP NFL Coach of the Year Award is presented annually to the coach that has had the ‘most outstanding season’. That term is obviously subject to interpretation but currently it appears that the criteria is more for a coach that oversees a turnaround in a team’s fortunes. Were it for consistent excellence, New England Patriots’ coach Bill Belichick would have more than three AP Coach of the Year Awards with none since 2010.

To give you some idea of the type of coach we’re talking about here are the most recent winners:

2018: Matt Nagy/Chicago Bears
2017: Sean McVay/Los Angeles Rams
2016: Jason Garrett/Dallas Cowboys
2015: Ron Rivera/Carolina Panthers
2014: Bruce Arians/Arizona Cardinals
2013: Ron Rivera/Carolina Panthers
2012: Bruce Arians/Indianapolis Colts
2011: Jim Harbaugh/San Francisco 49ers

A couple of things stand out looking at the list. The first thing is what we noted above–that the award goes more to a ‘turnaround’ coach than a ‘consistent excellence coach. Secondly, there hasn’t been many multiple winners in the past twenty years. While there have been two in the past 7 years since 2000 there have only been three repeat winners–Arians, Rivera and three time winner Bill Belichick. Since it appears that the AP would a) prefer to honor a ‘turnaround’ coach and b) would prefer to honor a ‘new’ winner and not a repeat recipient that allows us to eliminate a number of the names near the top of the betting market including Belichick and McVay. Obviously, both are first rate coaches and could win under the right scenario but they don’t offer much in the way of value.

NFL AP COACH OF THE YEAR 2019

FRANK REICH: Reich received plenty of props for his first year coaching the Indianpolis Colts and even with the ongoing ankle/shin injury plaguing Andrew Luck they’re the favorites to win the AFC South. The Colts were 4-12 in 2017 and improved to 10-6 last year. If they’re able to win the division and make some noise in the playoffs Reich could be recognized. There’s another scenario in which Reich could win–should Luck miss considerable time this year yet the Colts finish with a winning record that could also be recognized. Either way, he’s a good value play.

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PETE CARROLL: The Seattle Seahawks head coach is one of the least appreciated consisting NFL winners in recent history. Maybe it’s because he’s still thought of as a ‘college coach’ due to his run at USC. All he’s done since arriving in the NFL with the Seattle Seahawks is win a Super Bowl, make the playoffs 7 times in his 9 season and win games at a .620 clip. Bruce Arians won the ‘Coach of the Year Award’ during the Seahawks’ Super Bowl winning year in 2014. Should the Seahawks win the NFC West and/or win a few playoff games Carroll could finally get the recognition he deserves.

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SEAN MCDERMOTT: The Buffalo Bills took a step back in McDermott’s second year at the helm but they did a lot to upgrade the team in the offseason. He was smart enough to add Ken Dorsey to the staff as quarterbacks coach which will only help Josh Allen. The Bills’ defense in particular looks very good and could be the most improved in the league. If Buffalo posts a solid winning season McDermott would be a viable candidate at a hefty price.

BET SEAN MCDERMOTT +3300 TO WIN NFL AP COACH OF THE YEAR 2019

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