Big 12 College Football Futures Betting Preview

Oklahoma -175

Bet ‘em: The defending champions are favored to repeat, both in the odds and in preseason polls. Former Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts has some big shoes to fill, but he led the Crimson Tide to two title game appearances in his two seasons as a starter. The Sooners lead the conference with six players on the preseason All-Big 12 team, including preseason Defensive Player of the Year Kenneth Murray and preseason second-team All-American CeeDee Lamb. ESPN’s FPI gives Oklahoma a nearly 70 percent chance of winning the conference championship. They’ve won the title in each of the last four seasons.

Forget ‘em: Few teams lost more than Oklahoma. First-round picks Kyler Murray and Marquise Brown led the way, along with four offensive linemen. A bet on Oklahoma assumes a bevy of unproven players pick up the slack.

Texas +400

Bet ‘em: The Longhorns were the only team in the Big 12 with a recruiting class that rivals Oklahoma. Sam Ehlinger returns with big expectations as preseason Offensive Player of the Year. He nearly led the Longhorns to the title in 2018, having beaten Oklahoma in the regular season before falling in the title game.

Forget ‘em: Ehlinger will play behind three new offensive linemen and the defense will have to replace nine starters. The Longhorns haven’t won the championship since 2009. Leading receiver Lil’Jordan Humphrey went to the NFL.

Iowa State +800

Bet ‘em: The Cyclones had the top defense in the conference last season and saw four players named to the preseason All-Big 12 defense (JaQuan Bailey, Ray Lima, Marcel Spears Jr., Greg Eisworth). Once Brock Purdy took over at quarterback, Iowa State finished the regular season 7-2. Assuming Oklahoma has one spot in the Big 12 Championship game, the second spot could come down to Iowa State and Texas. The Cyclones host that game. It’s possible they’ll be favored in every game of the regular season outside of their trip to Oklahoma, though it should be noted that they were victorious in their last trip to Norman.

Forget ‘em: Purdy’s offense will be without two key contributors as both David Montgomery and Hakeem Butler are gone. The Cyclones have never won the Big 12. From a talent and resources standpoint, they simply can’t compete with Oklahoma and Texas.

Baylor +1200

Bet ‘em: The Bears showed massive improvement in Matt Rhule’s second season. He turned Temple into a 10-win team by his third season with them. Baylor will return many of their starters from last season. 

Forget ‘em: Trouble on the offensive line and forcing turnovers on defense could sink their chances. They had one of the worst situations in the nation in 2017, so it’s possible 2018 was a fluke.

Oklahoma State +1600

Bet ‘em: Wide receiver Tylan Wallace is the Big 12’s only first-team preseason All-American. The Cowboys had three straight 10-win seasons before 2018. 

Forget ‘em: The quarterback situation is unclear. Talent at the skill positions won’t matter if none of Oklahoma State’s passers stand out.

TCU +1600

Bet ‘em: The Horned Frogs have surprised before, turning unranked teams into 10-win seasons twice in the last five years. Four offensive line starters are returning. They have arguably the best secondary in the conference. Gary Patterson has a history of bouncing back after mediocre seasons.

Forget ‘em: Like Oklahoma State, they’re also uncertain at quarterback. They lost productive pass rushers L.J. Collier and Ben Banogu to the NFL. Two of their toughest games (Oklahoma and Iowa State) are on the road.

Texas Tech +2500, Kansas State +3300, West Virginia +3300, Kansas +8000

Bet ‘em: You believe in miracles. You like Les Miles. You’re an alumnus.

Forget ‘em: They have almost no chance.

THE PICK

IOWA STATE: While Oklahoma is (deservedly) the heavy favorite, at -175 there isn’t much value. Texas has a legitimate shot, but the Cyclones aren’t far behind and they’d turn a decent profit at +800. TCU is also a solid dart throw, especially if you have faith in them solving their quarterback puzzle.

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