Notre Dame College Football CFP Betting Odds

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish may have been a playoff team last season, but the oddsmakers are not keen on this team’s chances of competing for a national championship this year. There are 12 teams that have lower CFP futures betting odds to win the College Football Playoff than Notre Dame. Memories of last season’s blowout loss to Clemson in the Cotton Bowl continue to resonate, and that has led to all but a few experts outright dismissing Notre Dame as a contender.

Odds to Win College Football Playoffs
Notre Dame +5000

Before getting into the team preview, let’s remember one thing about the Irish. The brand is strong. Even if Notre Dame looks bad in one of its games and finishes 11-1, the Irish stand a pretty good chance of getting back to the College Football Playoff and a 12-0 record would certainly give them a spot. We’ll get into the schedule later but keep that in the back of your head.

Offensive Outlook

Brian Kelly’s decision to bench Brandon Wimbush in favor of Ian Book last season paid enormous dividends. Notre Dame’s offense had sputtered under Wimbush, but everything fell into place under Book. Book flourished as a passer in this offense, far outweighing what Wimbush brought to the table as a runner. Book’s adjusted passing yards per attempt was 3.4 yards more than Wimbush last season, and that’s a massive difference.

Book should put up even better numbers as a senior. He has a firm grasp of Kelly’s offense now, and for the first time in his career he took all the reps as the No. 1 guy during spring and summer. Additionally, he has plenty of experience and talent at the skill positions.

Although the Irish lost top wide-out Miles Boykin, Chase Claypool and Chris Finke return at wide receiver. That gives Book two of last year’s three top targets from last year, and he also has a potential star tight end in Cole Kmet. Kmet might miss the first few games after breaking his collarbone in the summer, but he will be an important part of the passing game when he returns. Notre Dame is crossing its fingers he will be ready for the road trip to Georgia where the Irish are a hefty underdog per the NCAA football betting odds.

The offensive line figures to be one of the best units in college football. Four of five starters from 2018 return up front, with the only newcomer being center Jarrett Patterson. That is typically the easiest position to replace along the line though, so that bodes well.

Defensive Outlook

There are some concerns that one of last season’s best defenses will regress in 2019. Bill Connelly’s S&P+ metric rated Notre Dame as the 10th best defense in the country last season, but the Irish lost Jerry Tillery, Julian Love, and Drue Tranquill.
That will put some pressure on second-year defensive coordinator Clark Lea. Lea is still something of an unknown commodity after replacing standout DC Mike Elko, and the defense’s performance against top teams this season will be telling.

Notre Dame should be very good at bringing pressure. The Irish have one of the best pass rushers in the country in Julian Okwara, who registered eight sacks and 21 quarterback hurries last season. Khalid Kareem flourished as the end opposite Okwara last year, and the duo should shine once more.

Stopping the run could be a little more of an issue. Both defensive tackles must be replaced, and the rotation is going to be inexperienced. Senior linebacker Asmar Bilal is a fine player, but others must emerge.

The secondary should be the strength of the defense. Alohi Gilman is the heart and soul of the unit, but there is a ton of talent and depth at both safety and cornerback.

Schedule

Two games will define Notre Dame’s season. The Irish are likely to be favored per the college football betting odds in 10 of their 12 games, but they will be significant underdogs in road games against Georgia and Michigan.

Both Georgia and Michigan are serious playoff contenders this season, so if the Irish can pull off the upset in one of those two games and run the table in their other 10, they are probably going to make it back to the playoff. Losses in both games will erase any chance of a repeat appearance.

Season Projection

I like the value in Notre Dame as a longshot here. This schedule is very manageable, and they don’t have a tough back-to-back at any point. At odds of 50-1, it’s worth rolling the dice that the Irish beat either Georgia or Michigan.

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