NFL Regular Season Prop Betting Preview: Part 1

The start of the National Football League regular season is just over a week away and handicappers are starting to get a feel for the teams and players that will make up the major storylines. In this preview we’ll start our look at an eclectic assortment of NFL proposition bets that BetOnline.ag has listed under the catch all title ‘NFL regular season proposition odds‘. This list has some ‘Yes/No’ type wagers, statistical wagers and team performance bets. There’s a lot to cover so over the course of the next few days we’ll start to work our way through the list giving out our preferred position and indicating some best bets along the way.

NFL REGULAR SEASON PROP BETTING PREVIEW

The first three wagers on the board are all related and all a simple handicap. Two are of the ‘bet a lot to win a little variety’ while the third is more ‘affordable’:

JACOBY BRISSETT TOTAL STARTS IN 2019 REGULAR SEASON
WILL ANDREW LUCK PLAY IN A GAME IN 2019 REGULAR SEASON?
WILL ANDREW LUCK PLAY IN A GAME IN 2020 REGULAR SEASON?

This may come as a shock to some of you but Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has retired. I’m kidding of course. It’s the biggest story of the NFL offseason and right at the top of the ‘regular season prop bet’ menu are three wagers directly related to it. Luck could potentially try a comeback at some point but it won’t be this year or next year. While it’s tough to ‘lay a lot to win a little’ both of the ‘Will Luck play’ wagers are overlays. The odds against him playing this year are probably 99.9%. Next year isn’t much different. At -1500 implied probability is 93.8% and at -1000 is 90.9%. That would suggest that Luck has a 6.2% chance of playing this year and a 9.1% chance of playing next year. Both are way too high.

The Jacoby Brissett prop also looks like a solid play. Barring injury, he’ll be the starter all year long.

BET JACOBY BRISSETT TOTAL STARTS IN 2019 REGULAR SEASON OVER 10.5 STARTS -190
BET ANDREW LUCK TO PLAY IN A GAME IN 2019 REGULAR SEASON–NO -1500
BET ANDREW LUCK TO PLAY IN A GAME IN 2019 REGULAR SEASON–NO -1500

This one is down the list a bit but while we’re talking about how many games Jacoby Brissett will start might as well hit it now:

HOW MANY GAMES WILL TODD GURLEY MISS IN REGULAR SEASON?
TODD GURLEY TOTAL RUSHING YARDS
TODD GURLEY TOTAL RUSHING AND RECEIVING TOUCHDOWNS

Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley is the sort of dependable workhorse rusher that coaches dream of. That type of ‘game’ comes at a price, however, making Gurley a candidate for injury and/or fatigue should he be overworked. Rams’ head coach Sean McVey knows this and will almost certainly give him a week or two off at some point in the season. Having him healthy for the playoffs is much more important. Gurley played 15 games in 2017 and 14 in 2018. Most like scenario–he’ll play 13 or 14 games this year. That shouldn’t undermine his productivity. In 2017 he went for 1,305 rushing yards, 13 rushing touchdowns and 6 receiving touchdowns. In 2018, it was 1,251 rushing yards, 17 rushing TDs and 4 receiving TDs.

BET HOW MANY GAMES WILL TODD GURLEY MISS IN REGULAR SEASON? OVER 1.5 GAME -115
TODD GURLEY TOTAL RUSHING YARDS OVER 1000 RUSHING YARDS -115
TODD GURLEY TOTAL RUSHING AND RECEIVING TOUCHDOWNS OVER 12 RUSHING AND RECEIVING TOUCHDOWNS -115

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