College Football Betting: Cincinnati at Ohio State

By BetOnline September 5, 2019

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The Cincinnati Bearcats won 11 games last year and had a great season. However, the one sour note was that in their two biggest games of the year, they fell short. Now they are trying to take the next step and win both the AAC championship and the Group of Five title, which would give them a New Year’s Six bowl berth, most likely in the Cotton Bowl.

If Cincinnati is to become the Group of Five champion, a win over Ohio State would give the Bearcats the kind of win which would give a huge boost to their resume. We will see if they are ready to pull the upset.

Cincinnati Bearcats at Ohio State Buckeyes
Date: Saturday, September 7, 2019 – 12:00 PM ET
Location: Ohio Stadium – Columbus, OH
CFB Odds: Ohio State -15.5
CFB Total: 54

Why The Bearcats Will Cover The Spread…

The Ohio State program sits in an uncertain position right now. Ryan Day has replaced Urban Meyer as the Buckeyes’ head coach. No one really knows how well Day will be able to fill in for Meyer, who is one of the greatest coaches in college football history. Ohio State certainly has talent, but if you have watched the past few Ohio State teams, you know they were vulnerable at times. The 2017 team lost by 31 points to Iowa. Last year’s team lost by 29 to Purdue. The Buckeyes have suffered embarrassing losses. They have played terrible defensive games in which their offense bailed them out.

Meyer kept those Ohio State teams together and prevented them from fragmenting. They didn’t always play well, but they won the games they had to win, claiming two straight Big Ten championships and winning New Year’s Six bowl games – the Cotton in the 2017 season, the Rose Bowl last season.

If Ryan Day is not up to the job and if it is clear that he is several notches below Urban Meyer, this is a game Cincinnati can steal. Luke Fickell used to be an Ohio State head coach in 2011 and he was a Buckeye assistant coach under Jim Tressel. He knows this program. He will try to outcoach Ryan Day, and if he does, that’s why Cincinnati could not only cover, but shock the world with an outright upset win.

Why The Buckeyes Will Cover The Spread…

The Ohio State defense might have its weaknesses, but the Cincinnati offense did not look especially effective in Week 1 against UCLA. Cincinnati committed huge mistakes, coughing up the ball when it was driving and having backs and receivers not being on the same page. Cincinnati had a chance to win by a much bigger margin – or even just put it away earlier – but repeated mistakes kept the game close and gave UCLA a small chance to win. Had replay review allowed a UCLA fumble recovery to be ruled on the field, Cincinnati would have led by a scant 24-21 margin late in the game. The fumble was not allowed, though, and Cincinnati avoided a massive scare.

The Cincinnati defense will not stop Ohio State’s offense, which is led by Georgia transfer Justin Fields, a fast quarterback who can make plays everywhere on the field. The Cincinnati offense has to score a lot in order to cover the spread, and based on all the mistakes the Bearcats made in Week 1, that just doesn’t seem very likely.

Taking A Look At The Total

Cincinnati won’t score a ton of points, but it will score enough points to go over the 54 point total, which feels like a low number here. Ohio State should be able to score at least 40 points, which means as long as Cincinnati doesn’t get completely shut down, the total should go over.