NFL Football Betting: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

The AFC South is wide open for the taking. None of the four teams in the division have a winning record through two games, and this is considered the weakest division in the NFL. A team has won this division with a record of 9-7 in two of the last four seasons, earning the right to host a playoff game in the first round of the playoffs. Despite mediocre starts to the season, both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans are out to turn it around.

TENNESSEE TITANS AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
LINE: TITANS -1.5
TOTAL: 39

There hasn’t been much movement with regards to the side or the total in this game. The initial NFL betting odds listed Tennessee as a 2.5-point road favorite, and the line has since dropped a point. That’s not a big move considering the spread is so short though. We’ve seen the total move down a point from 40 to 39 since the line opened on Sunday night. This is the only game of Week 3 with a total under 40 per the football betting line.

INJURY REPORT

Jacksonville spent a lot of money to acquire Nick Foles this offseason, but Foles went down with a major injury in Week 1. He suffered a broken collarbone against Kansas City, and he is not expected to return to action until November. Cornerbacks AJ Bouye and Josh Robinson are questionable along with tight end Josh Oliver, wide receiver Chris Conley, and linebacker DJ Alexander. The status of Jalen Ramsey is up in the air after the All Pro cornerback asked for a trade out of Jacksonville on Monday.

The Titans’ injuries are significantly more mundane. Linebacker Wesley Woodyard would be the biggest absence, and he is questionable. Cornerback Chris Milton, guard Kevin Pamphile, and running back David Fluellen are questionable as well.

WHEN TENNESSEE IS ON OFFENSE

Marcus Mariota is a little banged up coming into this game due to a pulled quad, but he has already said he will play on Thursday night. Mariota has been careful with the ball this season, throwing four touchdowns and no interceptions. However, he has arguably been too careful, especially after last week’s performance against Indianapolis. Mariota constantly dinked and dunked against the Colts, averaging just 5.5 yards per pass on the afternoon in a game where Tennessee was favored on the NFL betting line. With Jacksonville potentially missing Bouye, Robinson, and Ramsey, Tennessee might want to test the secondary.

Tennessee has run the ball well this season thanks in large part to Derrick Henry. The former Heisman Trophy winner is averaging 4.8 yards per carry, and Jacksonville’s front seven has been beatable. Veteran running backs LeSean McCoy and Carlos Hyde both had success against the Jaguars, and Henry will want to continue that trend.

The Jaguars need to get to Mariota if they are going to win this game. Jacksonville has just three total sacks on the year, but Mariota has already been sacked eight times this year. Mariota gets easily flustered when he feels the pressure, so the Jaguars may dial up some blitzes if these ends can’t get to the quarterback.

WHEN JACKSONVILLE IS ON OFFENSE

Rookie Gardner Minshew never expected to become a starting quarterback so soon, but Foles’ injury thrust the Washington State product into the spotlight. Minshew is known for his fashion and demeanor off the field, but he hasn’t fared too poorly on it either. He has completed 77.6 percent of his passes and is averaging 8.4 yards per attempt through most of two games.

DJ Chark and Chris Conley have been Minshew’s most consistent targets. Both receivers have catch rates above 80 percent, and both Chark and Conley are also averaging 17 yards or more per reception. Meanwhile, Dede Westbrook’s production has dropped considerably, so taking the under in Westbrook’s NFL player props might be a good idea.

Tennessee has one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL. Kevin Byard is considered the best safety in the game, and he should make Minshew’s job of reading coverages more difficult. The run front is stolid with Jurrell Casey standing tall, so Leonard Fournette could be in for a rough night. In three games against Tennessee in his career, Fournette is averaging a scant 3.1 yards per carry.

PREDICTION

The Jaguars have had no answers to the Titans’ defense in over two years, and Jacksonville isn’t likely to succeed with a rookie quarterback under center. Jacksonville has lost its last four meetings with Tennessee, averaging just 10.3 PPG in that stretch. With that in mind, I’ll take the Titans and the under.

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