College Football Betting: Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan Wolverines

By BetOnline October 3, 2019

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It’s been a few years since the Iowa Hawkeyes and Michigan Wolverines last squared off in Big Ten cross-divisional play. These teams don’t get to play as often as they’d like since they are on opposite sides of the conference, so both sides will be out to add a quality win to their resume on Saturday at noon. This is one of three games between two teams ranked in the Top 25 this week with the other two being Auburn-Florida and Michigan State-Ohio State.

IOWA HAWKEYES AT MICHIGAN WOLVERINES
LINE: MICHIGAN -3.5
TOTAL: 47.5

Throughout the week, the college football betting odds for this game have moved in Iowa’s favor. The Hawkeyes were originally an underdog of 5.5 points on Sunday, but that line has dropped steadily. The total has proved to be sturdy though, coming down just a half-point over the last several days.

RECENT HISTORY

Coming into Saturday, Iowa has won five of the last six games in this series. The Hawkeyes squeaked by the Wolverines 14-13 in the lone meeting between Kirk Ferentz and Jim Harbaugh, and all five of Iowa’s wins over this stretch have been by 10 points or less. The lone Michigan win occurred the last time these teams faced off in Ann Arbor with the Wolverines hammering the Hawkeyes 42-17.

WHEN MICHIGAN HAS THE BALL

The Wolverines’ offensive woes continue under Harbaugh. Prior to the start of the season, it appeared that Michigan finally had its man in Shea Patterson, but Patterson has not meshed well with things in Ann Arbor. He hasn’t been bad, but he has not lived up to the lofty expectations thrust upon him after transferring in from Ole Miss last year.

Patterson was not sharp against Army or Wisconsin. He didn’t stretch the field against the Black Knights, and that played a part in Army taking Michigan to double overtime. Patterson completed less than 50 percent of his passes against Wisconsin, and his numbers there were far worse until the Badgers started relenting after going up 35-0.

Michigan has not run the ball as good as you would expect. The Wolverines are averaging a woeful 3.5 YPC on the year, and there has been a complete lack of explosiveness in the run game. Through four games, Michigan has just one run of 20 or more yards, and leading rusher Zach Charbonnet has been mediocre outside of a nice day in the season opening win over Middle Tennessee State.

Iowa has one of the better defenses in the country, coming in at 22nd in defensive SP+. The Hawkeyes are allowing opponents to pick up just 3.5 YPC on the ground, and opposition quarterbacks are averaging 6.0 YPA. Iowa State has been the best offense Iowa has faced though, and the Hawkeyes only did a decent job of shutting their in-state rivals down. That could make NCAAF prop bets on some Michigan players enticing.

WHEN IOWA HAS THE BALL

Nate Stanley continues to put up solid numbers with the Hawkeyes. Iowa has a top 30 offense according to SP+, and Stanley is one of the primary reasons for that. He has completed 64.4 percent of his passes for 965 yards with eight touchdowns and no interceptions on the season.

We’ve seen Stanley shred excellent defenses in the past. Most notably, Stanley threw for five touchdowns against Ohio State in 2017, leading Iowa to a 55-24 rout of the Buckeyes. He is not afraid to throw deep balls, succeeding on quite a few of those attempts.

The Hawkeyes have run the ball well this year, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Iowa has three running backs that are averaging 5.5 YPC or more and this offensive line has been excellent. That might give Michigan’s front seven nightmares considering how thoroughly they were smashed by Wisconsin two weeks ago.

Michigan is now allowing 3.9 YPC after being run over by Wisconsin two weeks ago. The Badgers ran for 359 rushing yards on the afternoon, and we’ve never seen a Don Brown defense give up those numbers. That’s cause for alarm going forward.