College Football Betting: Texas Tech Red Raiders at Baylor Bears

By BetOnline October 10, 2019

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Don’t look now but the Baylor Bears are ranked in the Top 25. With a 5-0 starts with credible wins over Iowa State and Kansas State, this team has clearly come a long way from being a Big 12 doormat. This week they’ll host the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who surprised No. 21 Oklahoma State last week with a 45-35 win. Can the Red Raiders beat a second consecutive Top 25 team or will Baylor win and become bowl eligible before the middle of October?

TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS AT BAYLOR BEARS
CFB ODDS: BAYLOR -11
CFB TOTAL: 58

WHY THE RED RAIDERS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Texas Tech Red Raiders have a better defense than in the past. New coach Matt Wells has come in with an emphasis on defense, something the program lacked under former coach Kliff Kingsbury. That was clearly evident last week when Texas Tech forced five turnovers from Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders last week. If they’re able to bring that brand of defense once again, they’ll push for the win here.

The Red Raiders 3-2 record might not look impressive but they lost starting quarterback Alan Bowman a few weeks ago and that derailed things for them. That cost them the loss to Arizona and while they likely wouldn’t have beaten Oklahoma the week after anyway, it led to them getting blown out. Jeff Duffey is finally in and comfortable as the starter, as evidenced by his 424-yard, four-touchdown effort last week. The Red Raiders will be confident going into this game.

WHY THE BEARS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Bears are doing everything well. They did not allow a touchdown in the first three quarters of their game at Kansas State last week and by the time they did allow a touchdown, they had the game well in hand. They cruised to a 31-12 victory and moved to 5-0 on the season. The offense is in the capable hands of quarterback Charlie Brewer, who does not get the publicity of fellow Big 12 quarterbacks Jalen Hurts at Oklahoma or Sam Ehlinger at Texas, but steadily guides the Baylor offense and delivers scoring drives when the team needs them.

Baylor is not a flashy team, and it won’t compete with Oklahoma or Texas in the Big 12 race, but the Bears could realistically be the third-place team in the conference because they have fewer weaknesses than teams four through ten in the conference. That kind of identity serves the Bears well against everyone else in the Big 12. Their defense has played well this season as they have yet to allow more than 21 points in a game. They’ve really improved on that side of the ball.

On top of that, Texas Tech doesn’t have regular starting quarterback Alan Bowman in this game. That should really hurt the Red Raiders. Jett Duffey was not bad as Tech’s backup quarterback against Oklahoma State, but he was helped by all the turnovers the Red Raider defense gained against Oklahoma State’s offense. Baylor will not feed Tech those same turnovers. That will make a big difference.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE TOTAL

In years past, this would be a 70, 80 or even 90-point contest. This year, the Bears defense is playing well and the Red Raiders unit is quickly improving. Both teams have tightened up on that side of the ball, so this won’t be a back-and-forth shootout. Take the under.