Odds to Win the 2020 Presidential Election

The 2020 United States Presidential Election is now less than a year away. We’ll see an incredible amount of coverage over the next 364 days, and the political betting odds are certain to change considerably over that time. However, it’s clear that the oddsmakers believe that the general election will likely feature Donald Trump squaring off against Elizabeth Warren. Their odds to win the 2020 election are considerably lower than any other contender at this point.

WHO WILL WIN THE 2020 UNITED STATES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

DONALD TRUMP +125
ELIZABETH WARREN +225
JOE BIDEN +800
BERNIE SANDERS +1200
ANDREW YANG +1400
PETE BUTTIGIEG +1400
TULSI GABBARD +4000
KAMALA HARRIS +5000
MIKE PENCE +5000
TOM STEYER +5000
AMY KLOBUCHAR +10000
CORY BOOKER +10000

Although Trump is sure to leave office as the most scandalous president in United States history, he stands a good chance of winning a second term. His approval rating has dipped below 40 percent according to most polls, and he will likely lose the popular vote once again provided he is the Republican nominee in 2020. However, the electoral college is skewing right, and that boosts Trump’s hopes of winning reelection.

A recent study from Michael Geruso, Dean Spears, and Ishaana Talesara shows that the electoral college has favored certain parties at various points over its history. Because the electoral college gives smaller states outsized influence, the party that appeals to rural voters has a better than average chance of winning an election than you would think by going off national polls.

Surveys from Siena College and The New York Times show that Trump has a small edge in swing states, much in the same way he did in 2016. Although Joe Biden is polling better than Trump in those states, his campaign is losing momentum, and it’s unlikely he would keep those margins over the coming year.

Trump also benefits from the incumbency advantage. Incumbent presidents stand a good chance of winning reelection historically, as there are certain benefits incumbents receive. They don’t have to deal with messy primaries, they get an enormous kickstart in terms of fundraising, and they have already established name recognition and some good will in the eyes of voters.

Elizabeth Warren is even money to win the Democratic Party nomination, and she is seen as the main challenger to Trump. Warren doesn’t yet have the name recognition that fellow frontrunners Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders enjoy, but she has done very well in the polls and in fundraising.

Warren is ahead of Sanders and Biden in most of the recent polls that have been released for Iowa’s caucuses. Those are the first state primaries and succeeding in either Iowa or New Hampshire is huge. No candidate has won their party’s nomination without performing very well in one of those two states, and Warren has been surging in the Granite State too.

Biden was the frontrunner to win the Democratic nomination, but most experts have dismissed the former Vice President’s chances. His poll numbers have been fading since the initial name recognition he enjoyed is now gone, and it’s unlikely that he will rally. Biden’s three main rivals for the nomination have received a substantial boost in recent weeks, so any bet on the former VP is not a wise one.

Betting on Bernie Sanders at odds of 12-1 could be a shrewd move though. Sanders has an entrenched base of supporters, and he is polling well in all the early states. His progressive policies have struck a note with younger voters, and even a heart attack didn’t hurt his poll numbers. While he is not likely to be the nominee due to his age, these odds are more than favorable for Sanders given his polling numbers and fundraising capability.

Pete Buttigieg stands a much better chance of winning the nomination than Andrew Yang, and the South Bend mayor’s odds should be 10-1 or lower. Buttigieg has established a position for himself as a young centrist, and that has led to big businesses pouring money into the coffers of the one-time longshot. He has closed the gap on Warren, Biden, and Sanders in the polls, and this is a great price to get a candidate that could win Iowa.

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