NFL Betting: Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys

By BetOnline November 8, 2019

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The Minnesota Vikings suffered a disappointing loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Just as Kirk Cousins appeared to be red-hot and the Vikings appeared to be a legit contender in the NFC, they fell flat and lost to a Chiefs team that was missing Patrick Mahomes. Now they’ll go on the road to face a Dallas Cowboys team that’s also trying to convince everyone they’re a playoff contender. They took advantage of several New York Giants turnovers to pull away in the second half. They’ll have to play better this week if they’re aiming to win their third in a row.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT DALLAS COWBOYS
NFL ODDS: COWBOYS -3
NFL TOTAL: 48

WHY THE VIKINGS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Vikings are an inconsistent team but the Cowboys are probably even more volatile than Minnesota. The thing to remember about the Cowboys is that their first three wins of the season came against the Giants, the Washington Redskins, and the Miami Dolphins. Then the Cowboys won their second game against the Giants this past Monday night. This means that Dallas has fattened up on bad teams this season with their only other win coming against the Philadelphia Eagles.

For the Vikings to win, they’re going to need to get their ground game going again. It’s been one of the best in the business this season, averaging 153.0 yards per game (ranked third in the NFL), but they were stopped cold last week. They had just 96 yards on 21 carries. Dallas’ run defense has struggled in the losses, giving up 149 rushing yards to the New Orleans Saints and 120 to the Green Bay Packers.

If the Vikings can get their running game back on track and stop the Cowboys from doing the same, they’ll be in great shape.

WHY THE COWBOYS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

In many ways, this is a matchup of teams who mirror each other. The Cowboys also enjoy more success when they’re able to run the ball as they’re fourth in the NFL in that category. They’re 4-1 when Ezekiel Elliott runs for at least 100 yards and 2-2 otherwise. The Vikings have a pretty good run defense but they’ve collapsed in the last two weeks, giving up 232 rushing yards. There could be an opening for the Cowboys here.

While it’s true that the Cowboys have beaten up on bad teams this season, one thing to note is that they have lost only one home game this season, to the 7-2 Green Bay Packers. Dallas has otherwise protected its home field strongly with their margin of victory in their home wins this season is 23.3 points.

The other main point to make for the Cowboys in this game is that Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins is one of the least trustworthy quarterbacks in the league in big road games. The Chicago Bears have fallen off the pace in the NFC, but when the Vikings visited the Bears earlier this season, that game was regarded as a huge measuring stick for Cousins and the Vikings’ offense. Minnesota scored only six points, as Cousins and the Vikings lost their third straight game to the Bears since they signed Cousins.

The other big road games for the Vikings this season – against good teams likely to make the playoffs – were against the Packers and Chiefs. Cousins threw a terrible fourth-quarter interception in the end zone to cost the Vikings a win against the Packers. Against the Chiefs, Cousins had three touchdowns but was 19 of 38 passing, which was inefficient enough to cost Minnesota against a Kansas City team which was without Patrick Mahomes. Cousins shrinks in big games and this should be one of them.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE TOTAL

The Cowboys and Vikings both have offenses which are good at moving the ball and getting yards, but which often fail to finish drives. It’s a strength-on-strength here as both teams have good running games and good run defenses. This total opened at 48 and has held there. It feels like we’ll be hanging right around this number but I’d lean to the under.