ATP Nitto Finals Tennis

The 2019 edition of the ATP Finals is about to begin. It’s essentially the final tennis event of the year as we’ll mostly be dormant until the end of December, although there will be some smaller event.

The top eight players in the world have qualified for this event and we’ll see Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Matteo Berrettini, and Dominic Thiem are in one four-player group while the other will feature Rafael Nadal, Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Alexander Zverev. Taking a look at the tennis betting lines, who is the best bet here?

NITTO ATP FINALS
ATP TOUR – YEAR-END CHAMPIONSHIP
NOVEMBER 10-17, 2019
O2 ARENA – LONDON, ENGLAND

LAST 5 CHAMPIONS

2018 – ALEXANDER ZVEREV
2017 – GRIGOR DIMITROV
2016 – ANDY MURRAY
2015 – NOVAK DJOKOVIC
2014 – NOVAK DJOKOVIC

NITTO ATP FINALS ODDS

DJOKOVIC +110
FEDERER +350
MEDVEDEV +400
NADAL +400
TSITSIPAS +1200
ZVEREV +1400
THIEM +1400
BERRETTINI +2000

BEST BET TO WIN IT

This tournament had a very specific feel one week ago. Rafael Nadal had looked very strong in Paris at the Bercy Masters, rolling into the semifinals, and it seemed like a player who was ready to win his first-ever ATP Finals championship. On Saturday in Paris, though, Nadal injured his abdomen while warming up before his semifinal match against Denis Shapovalov. In an instant, the complexion of this tournament changed.

Djokovic is now the clear favorite and he deserves to be. He won the Paris Masters, though he didn’t have to play Nadal or Roger Federer. He’s been on top of his game since he left the U.S. Open with a shoulder injury and when he’s focused, he’s the guy to beat on hard-courts. He’s now won 13 of his last 14 matches overall.

The other intriguing player is Daniil Medvedev, who is in the four-player group opposite Djokovic. Given Nadal’s injury – he his playing in the tournament but is likely to be physically limited – Medvedev should win his group and Djokovic should win his group. He’s been fatigued (and shaky) in his last two tournaments but prior to that, had gone to the final or won the last six events he entered. No player has more hardcourt wins than him this season. A Djokovic victory over Medvedev in the final is the most likely outcome.

BEST LONGSHOT WORTH A FLIER

Alexander Zverev is the defending champion in London, but a month ago, nothing was going right for him. However, he made good runs in Beijing and Shanghai, reaching the semifinal and the final, respectively, and as a result boosted his ranking enough to make this event in London. He has confidence and a renewed sense of knowing how to play, which wasn’t always there in his 2019 season. Zverev is in the group with Nadal, which gives him a chance to make an underdog run to the final. He wasn’t expected to make the final a year ago, so this year could offer more of the same.

Remember that at this event over the last two years, a totally unexpected champion has emerged. It hasn’t been the big boys like Djokovic, Federer or Nadal. Grigor Dimitrov won in 2017 and Zverev won in 2018. This has been a showcase for surprises in recent years, so don’t be too convinced that the heavyweights will lift the trophy on the final Sunday, November 17.

PLAYER TO AVOID

It has to be Nadal because of the concerns about his injury. It’s supposedly minor and he’s had a couple of weeks to heal. However, Nadal will need a big serve to win a lot of points on an indoor hardcourt surface. If he has to work really hard on every service point, Medvedev – who is in his group – has an excellent chance of beating him. Stefanos Tsitsipas is also in Nadal’s group. If Rafa can’t serve, Tsitsipas is also more than good enough to beat the Spaniard. It is rotten luck, but Nadal simply can’t be trusted with his body betraying him at the wrong time.

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