College Football: Georgia Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers

The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry has enormous stakes this Saturday. The Auburn Tigers’ hopes of going to a New Year’s Day bowl are probably on the line when they host the Georgia Bulldogs, while the Bulldogs must win this game to still have a legitimate chance of making the College Football Playoff. Georgia was ranked No. 4 in the latest CFP rankings on Tuesday, but the Bulldogs know they can’t afford a second loss after a disappointing defeat at the hands of 4-6 South Carolina.

There is more at stake than just the fates of those two schools too. Oregon needs Auburn to win as many games as possible to increase its chances of making it to the College Football Playoff since the Pac 12 is relatively week aside from Utah.

GEORGIA BULLDOGS AT AUBURN TIGERS
CFB LINE: GEORGIA -3
CFB TOTAL: 40.5

Georgia was initially favored by 2.5 points per the college football betting odds, but the line has risen to three points over the last few days. The total is one of the lowest in Week 12 at 40.5 points, as these two defenses are two of the top units in the country.

RECENT HISTORY

Auburn knocked off Georgia the last time these rivals met at Jordan-Hare Stadium, but Georgia has won five of the last six games between these two teams. The Bulldogs have held the Tigers to 13 points or less in each of those five victories, and they were blasted 40-17 in the lone loss during that stretch.

WHEN AUBURN HAS THE BALL

The Tigers will look to run the ball as much as they can to keep the pressure off freshman Bo Nix. Nix has looked like a freshman in Auburn’s biggest games this season, completing less than 43 percent of his passes and averaging less than 5.5 YPA in losses to Florida and LSU. He has been much better at home than he has been on the road though, completing 60.4 percent of his passes and averaging 8.2 YPA at home compared to 50.5 percent and 5.8 YPA on the road.

Seth Williams has been his best receiver with 35 receptions for 569 yards and eight touchdowns. The sophomore from Cottondale has more than half of Auburn’s receiving TD’s this year, and only one other receiver has multiple touchdowns.

That’s why Gus Malzahn is hoping his ground game can find some success against Georgia. JaTarvious Whitlow has been Auburn’s best running back this year, but Whitlow is dealing with a knee injury and missed last week’s game against Ole Miss.

Georgia has one of the best defenses in the country. The Bulldogs’ defense is No. 2 in the nation per SP+, and they are allowing just 4.2 yards per play and 3.0 YPC. This secondary has been excellent, so Nix will likely have a tough time having success through the air. That will likely lead to Nix finishing under his NCAA Player Props.

WHEN GEORGIA HAS THE BALL

Kirby Smart has seemingly opened the offense up somewhat after Georgia’s loss to South Carolina. The Bulldogs had been content to play old school Alabama football prior to the defeat, but Georgia has turned to Jake Fromm more and more over the last few weeks.

Fromm has largely delivered. All three of his interceptions came in the loss to South Carolina, and he picked apart Florida’s secondary in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. However, the only receiver on this team that can consistently get open is Lawrence Cager. Cager is expected to play through a shoulder injury this weekend, and he has 13 receptions for 225 yards and a touchdown in Georgia’s last two games.

The Bulldogs have an impressive stable of running backs, and the best battle on Saturday will be between Georgia’s offensive line and Auburn’s defensive line. If Georgia can block Auburn and get it’s ground game going, the Bulldogs should have no problem covering the college football betting odds and getting a win, but the Tigers have one of the top defensive lines in the country.

PREDICTION

This game is going to be low scoring, so the under is a solid play. If Nix were a little more seasoned, I would like Auburn to pull off the upset at home, but the moment is probably too big for the freshman.

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