United Kingdom Prime Minister Betting Odds

The ramifications of Brexit are still defining politics in the United Kingdom. The UK voted to leave the European Union by a narrow margin in June 2016, and they were supposed to leave the EU in March 2019. However, multiple governments have failed to come up with a suitable withdrawal agreement, and that has led to three delays and a call for new elections by current Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Brexit will be the primary plank of every party’s platform, and the winner of this election will be the candidate of the party with the most palatable option.

WHO WILL BE THE PRIME MINISTER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM AFTER THE GENERAL ELECTION?

BORIS JOHNSON -550
JEREMY CORBYN +375
DOMINIC RAAB +3300
JO SWINSON +3300

Boris Johnson is the heavy favorite to win the General Election per the political betting odds. Johnson was named the Leader of the Conservative Party and subsequently the Prime Minister after surprisingly winning the party’s leadership election following the resignation of Theresa May in late July. He is a controversial figure, but he has the incumbency advantage and the benefit of running for the party that has won the last two elections.

The most recent polls show that Johnson has a substantial lead. A poll by Kantar had the current PM ahead of Labour Party candidate Jeremy Corbyn by 18 points, and the Conservative Party has been ahead by a significant percentage since the summer. Each of the last seven major polls released show the Conservative Party with a double-digit lead in the polling, but the Labour Party is expected to close the gap closer to Election Day.

Johnson is known for speaking his mind, and that’s a double-edged sword. As a longshot, his perceived honesty and bluntness endeared him to voters, but that might hurt him as a favorite. Many were aghast that Johnson rose to the position of Prime Minister, comparing his selection to that of Donald Trump. That could lead to one of the other candidates defeating him, but the left is fractured.

Jeremy Corbyn is the current Leader of the Labour Party, but he is not a popular figure nationally. Corbyn is seen as too far left on the spectrum, and many believe that the party would fair better with a centrist as leader. He identifies as more of a socialist than a member of Labour, turning some potential voters off. However, he remains a popular figure within Labour, and he will pick up the votes of the hard liners.

Corbyn is prone to gaffes, and he has been a favorite punching bag among media members. That criticism has led to Labour never receiving more than 33 percent of the vote in any of the latest national polls, so it’s unlikely that he wins a popularity contest with Johnson.

There is a strong chance the vote is split among the left too. Jo Swinson has consistently polled well, and she is winning a lot of support from the left. The Liberal Democrats have consistently polled around 15 percent, and some Liberal Democrats have been adamant that they will support Swinson over Corbyn.

Swinson is a 33-1 longshot to be named the next Prime Minister, and she should have even longer odds to be truthful. The Liberal Democrats have always been a third party in the United Kingdom, and even Swinson has admitted herself that she will not be the next Prime Minister. It would take the utter collapse of Labour to pave the way for Swinson to become Prime Minister, and that is not going to happen anytime soon.

It’s unlikely that Corbyn closes the gap in the polls, but he still has a decent chance to become the next Prime Minister. As Election Day nears, left leaning voters will start to return home as they realize that Corbyn has the best chance to defeat Johnson. Johnson doesn’t have anything close to majority support, and many undecided voters are expected to break left. Given the stakes, turnout is expected to be massive, and that historically favors the left, giving Corbyn a potential path to victory despite trailing in the polls by a sizable margin.

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