NFL Betting: Thanksgiving Day Game Props

NFL Betting: Thanksgiving Day Game Props

We’ve gotten used to Thursday NFL games but Thanksgiving is still a treat. This week, we’ll have three games on the card with the Detroit Lions hosting the Chicago Bears, the Dallas Cowboys hosting the Buffalo Bills and the Atlanta Falcons hosting the New Orleans Saints.

BetOnline has posted a slew of props for Thanksgiving, so if you don’t have a beat on the sides, you have plenty of other betting options to look at.

LARGEST MARGIN OF VICTORY IN ANY OF THE THANKSGIVING GAMES

THANKSGIVING ODDS: OVER-UNDER 14.5

The Bears-Lions game, between two teams with bad offenses, should be close. Neither team is particularly functional on offense, so it’s hard to see either of them running away with it. That’s probably not a game that pushes for the over here. However, the other two just might.

The Bills-Cowboys game looks like it should be close on the surface but it also feels like a game where the Cowboys finally get that elusive win versus a winning team (0-4 so far this season). The Bills are 8-3 but they lost by 18 to the Philadelphia Eagles at home, giving up 218 rushing yards to the Eagles. The Cowboys blew the Eagles out, so if they can run the ball here, they should be able to win handily.

As for the Saints-Falcons matchup, the Saints were blown out at home by the Falcons by a final score of 26-9 just three weeks ago. The Saints will want revenge. They are a much better team, and the Falcons – after playing well for a few weeks – were brought down to earth in a blowout loss to the Buccaneers this past Sunday. New Orleans should win big. Over might be the better play here.

MOST PASSING YARDS ON THANKSGIVING

DREW BREES +150
MATT RYAN +200
DAK PRESCOTT +300
JEFF DRISKEL +750
MITCHELL TRUBISKY +750
JOSH ALLEN +900

It’s pretty clear with this prop that this looks like a three-horse race. Brees, Ryan and Prescott are all at +300 or shorter while the remaining trio is at +750 or longer.

The general sentiment in the night game is that the Saints might blow out the Falcons, but remember that the Falcons stymied the Saints three weeks ago in New Orleans and beat them 26-9. The Saints have a strong running game and a great defense, and they need those to work. Brees doesn’t have to throw for a ton of yards for the Saints to win comfortably. The defense and running game didn’t work in the first meeting, so don’t be surprised if the Saints have fixed those issues and get better efforts from both. Assuming the Saints get a 14- or 21-point lead midway through the game, Atlanta’s Matt Ryan will throw the ball on nearly every play. He will be gobbling up garbage-time yards to pad his stats.

Dak Prescott has a good chance of beating the Buffalo Bills, but Buffalo has a strong pass defense. They’ve been vulnerable on the ground versus quality teams, giving up nearly 150 rushing yards per game in their three losses. That means the Cowboys are likely to rely on the run here – as long as it’s working.

MOST PASSING YARDS ON THANKSGIVING

EZEKIEL ELLIOTT +150
ALVIN KAMARA +400
BO SCARBROUGH +400
DAVID MONTGOMERY +500
DEVIN SINGLETARY +600
JOSH ALLEN +750
FRANK GORE +1000

This is an interesting prop here as Elliott is heavily favored as he’s at +150. The next six players are between +400 and +750. He should have a great matchup against the Bills while the rest of the players are a crapshoot.

Scarbrough has been running well since he earned the starting job in Detroit (98 rushing yards last week) but he’s a risky play against the Chicago Bears defense. Kamara is an electric player but rarely has big games on the ground. He hasn’t rushed for more than 75 yards in a game since Week 1. Meanwhile, Singletary and Montgomery are rookies who have played well but are hard to trust. It feels like Elliott is the best bet of the bunch here.

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