Week 14 NFL MVP Odds Update

The MVP race is rapidly comping to a close. Here are the current odds from the biggest underdogs to the biggest favorite. 

6. MICHAEL THOMAS +5000

Before Sunday, Thomas had put five straight 100-yard games together. With no touchdowns and six receptions, it was arguably his worst performance of the season. That hurts him considering the Falcons have a bottom-10 pass defense. 

But the truth is he never really had much of a shot, as is evident by his +5000 odds and status as the only non-quarterback still in contention. To have a legitimate chance, he’ll likely need to put on a show this weekend in a very tough matchup with the 49ers.

T-4. PATRICK MAHOMES +2500

Mahomes hasn’t exceeded 200 yards in three of his last four games. He has some excuses (weather, game flow) but he needed to light the world on fire after his knee injury. He remains in the top five solely because of the very real possibility that he could dominate in Kansas City’s final four games. 

That would be especially impressive considering he’s got arguably the toughest schedule of any quarterback from Weeks 14 through 17. He’ll get New England on the road this week followed by Denver at home, the Bears in Chicago, then back home to face the Chargers. If he gets back to throwing for 350 yards per game against those defenses, he has a good chance to add another MVP award to his résumé.

T-4. AARON RODGERS +2500

The incredibly inconsistent Rodgers is back in the MVP discussion after a four-touchdown performance. Of course, he threw just two passing touchdowns over the course of his previous three games. Considering the shocking outbursts he has from time to time, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he closes the season with a bang.

Rodgers has a couple of below-average teams (Washington, Detroit) left on the schedule. He’s also got Minnesota, a team that has struggled to defend the pass at times. The Bears gave him plenty of trouble in Week 1. In his first meetings with the three division opponents remaining on the schedule, he averaged 232 yards and 1.6 touchdowns per game. 

3. DESHAUN WATSON +1000

Watson’s performance against Baltimore did plenty of damage to his MVP case, but he has played well since then. A three-touchdown performance in a win over Patriots was at least somewhat effective in erasing our memories of the Ravens game.

After hosting Denver this week, the Texans get Tennessee twice and Tampa on the road. He should be looking forward to facing the abominable Tampa secondary.

2. RUSSELL WILSON +250

Wilson has helped lead the Seahawks to a five-game winning streak and the second seed in the NFC. Statistically, his MVP case relies on his early-season performances. Yes, he beat the undefeated 49ers on the road and beat Minnesota in a game Seattle really needed for playoff position. But in his last three games, he’s averaging 224 yards and threw five touchdowns and three interceptions. That’s not going to help him unseat Lamar Jackson.

This week, Wilson faces a Rams team he threw four touchdowns against in Week 5. He also gets Arizona’s 32nd-ranked pass defense in Week 16. Things are slightly harder in Carolina in Week 15 and he closes the season in another tough matchup with San Francisco.

1. LAMAR JACKSON -275

As the odds indicate, Jackson is beginning to run away with the MVP award. Even though his statistical performance against the 49ers wasn’t as impressive as his previous two games, he still ran for 100 yards and led Baltimore to a big win over a good team in bad weather. At this point, the award is his to lose.

He doesn’t have the toughest schedule in the world, either. Buffalo and Pittsburgh could cause him problems, but the Jets aren’t scaring anyone and the Ravens will surely be out for revenge in Cleveland.

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