NFL Week 14 Games to Avoid

The New York Jets were the first team to lose to both Miami and Cincinnati. The Jets ensured that the Bengals would not go winless in 2019 with a dismal performance in the Queen City last Sunday. Sam Darnold struggled to continue his fine form as he was constantly pressured by Carlos Dunlap and Cincinnati’s defensive line, while Andy Dalton played well to lead the Bengals to a 22-6 victory.

We told you not to bet on the Jets in that spot, so you saved some money if you listened. However, if you followed the advice of the other two picks in last week’s column you lost out on some funds. San Francisco stayed within the number in terrible weather on the road against Baltimore, and Green Bay used a big fourth quarter to cover against Big Blue.

GAMES TO AVOID IN WEEK 14

BALTIMORE RAVENS -6 AT BUFFALO BILLS

Buffalo has been underrated all year. The Bills are already over their preseason win total, and they are closing in on just their second playoff appearance of the 21^st Century. Sean McDermott has this team playing solid, mistake-free football, and the Bills have had an extra few days to prepare for the Ravens after Buffalo went into Dallas on Thanksgiving and won handily despite being nearly a touchdown underdog per the NFL betting odds.

The Bills have only lost by more than six points once this season. Buffalo is 9-3, but everyone is on the Baltimore bandwagon after what we have seen from the Ravens the last few weeks. Lamar Jackson is now the odds-on favorite to be named the NFL MVP, and this offense has looked superb against New England and San Francisco. The Patriots and 49ers have the two best defenses in the league, so Jackson silenced all his doubters with his performances in those games.

McDermott might be the second-best head coach in the league behind Bill Belichick, and he has one of the top defenses in the league too. He’s been able to see what works and doesn’t work against Baltimore these last few weeks, and he can keep this one close with extra time to prepare.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -2 AT ARIZONA CARDINALS

Taking short road favorites has not worked out this year. Teams that are favored by three points or less on the road have an abysmal record, so stay away from Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon.

The Steelers will be starting undrafted rookie Devlin Hodges, and he is not a great quarterback. Mike Tomlin has stated as much by saying that Hodges doesn’t kill the team with mistakes, making it clear that Hodges is more of a game manager than anything else. This team is in the bottom five in offense according to the most recent DVOA Ratings, so it’s hard to trust Hodges on the road in this environment.

Kyler Murray is coming off one of his worst games of the season. Arizona was thrashed by the Los Angeles Rams last week, and the Cardinals didn’t score until the fourth quarter when it was already 34-0. However, Murray and Kliff Kingsbury are proving their system works, as Arizona is rated in the top half of the league in offense by most advanced metrics despite having a rookie quarterback and rookie head coach.

Arizona has a great shot to pick up its fourth win of the season, and the Cardinals are a live dog at +108 on the moneyline.

CLEVELAND BROWNS -7 VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS

The Browns have been a popular selection since this line dropped from -8 to -7, but the Bengals are a better team than their 1-11 record indicates. Cincinnati’s defensive line does a good job of creating pressure up front with Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins, and that could lead to multiple mistakes from Baker Mayfield. Mayfield has thrown 14 interceptions already this season, and the Browns don’t have a good offensive line.

Cincinnati’s offense isn’t as bad with Dalton under center instead of Ryan Finley, and the Bengals have done a better job running the football in recent weeks too. John Ross III has finally been cleared to play again after a two-month absence, and he can burn these aggressive Cleveland defensive backs over the top.

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