2020 United States Democratic Party Nominee Betting Odds

Marianne Williamson became the most recent candidate running for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination to drop out of the race on Friday. Williamson was never considered a serious contender, but she qualified for two debates and brought plenty of attention to her candidacy despite being a political outsider. Her withdrawal from the race has done little to elucidate who the party’s nominee will be as there are still around a dozen contenders, but four potential nominees have risen above the field. Let’s take a look at those candidates and whether there is value in betting on them to win the Democratic nomination at these odds.

ODDS TO WIN THE 2020 DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINATION

JOE BIDEN +175
BERNIE SANDERS +300
ELIZABETH WARREN +800
PETE BUTTIGIEG +800
MICHAEL BLOOMBERG +1000
ANDREW YANG +1200
HILLARY CLINTON +2500
AMY KLOBUCHAR +3300
MICHELLE OBAMA +5000
TOM STEYER +5000
TULSI GABBARD +5000
CORY BOOKER +8000
DEVAL PATRICK +8000

Joe Biden has been harangued as out of touch, and he has made numerous missteps on the campaign trail. His “No Malarkey” slogan doesn’t resonate with young voters, but he is considered the frontrunner despite all his faults according to the most recent political betting odds.

Biden’s polling numbers are strong, and he has a national appeal that other candidates don’t possess. He has the most name recognition of any candidate by a wide amount, and his association with Barack Obama ingratiates him with many potential voters. That has made him the probable candidate according to two respected models (Augur and FiveThirtyEight), but there’s still six months between now and the Democratic National Convention.

At these odds, Biden isn’t worth betting. He has the perception of being the frontrunner now, but Biden isn’t likely to fair well in the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary. Typically, the eventual nominee wins at least one of those contests, but Biden is behind Bernie Sanders in both states. If Biden doesn’t win either state, his star will fall, and he doesn’t have the charisma to recover.

Bernie Sanders came out of left field to give Hillary Clinton a strong challenge for the nomination in 2016, and he could play spoiler this time. Although the Democratic establishment has a love-hate relationship with Sanders, the senator from Vermont has a strong base of support among younger voters and more liberal voters, and he inspires his supporters like no other candidate running for the Democratic nomination.

He is polling well in both Iowa and New Hampshire, and he could ride victories in those states to a national surge. There are health concerns after Sanders suffered a heart attack on the campaign trail a few months ago, but septuagenarians are experiencing no real backlash for their age. Donald Trump, Biden, and Elizabeth Warren are all in their 70s too, so this might not be held against Sanders.

His portrayal has a radical leftist by many centrists is his biggest drawback. Some believe that Sanders is unelectable in a general election, and we have seen the Democratic Party stack the deck against Sanders in the recent past. That makes it hard to bet him at this price.

Elizabeth Warren’s campaign is not in a good place. While she is still considered one of the frontrunners, her polling and fundraising trails Biden, Sanders, and Pete Buttigieg. She was projected to win Iowa according to many polls last month, but her numbers have dropped in the Hawkeye State and her national polling has taken a significant hit too.

Her fall is somewhat puzzling. It seemed likely that she could be accepted as a compromise candidate between the centrists and the more liberal elements of the Democratic Party, but instead she has taken heat from both sides. She isn’t left enough for those loyal to Sanders, while those in the middle believe that she is too much like Bernie. Still, there is value in Warren at this price, as she has the gravitas and energy to make a comeback.

The best bet at this price is Buttigieg though. He has been a fundraising machine the past two quarters, and he is more appealing to young voters than Biden. Buttigieg is the one young candidate with a legitimate shot of winning the presidency, and younger voters might flock to him as there are growing generational divides in America. He can tap into a lot of that frustration and ride the wave to the nomination.

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