Bernie Sanders is the New Favorite to Win the Iowa Caucus

The Hawkeye State is feeling the Bern. Bernie Sanders is at the head of the field in Iowa according to the most recent poll released by The Des Moines Register and CNN last Friday. Sanders was the first choice of 20 percent of potential voters in the Iowa Caucuses, and that puts him ahead of Elizabeth Warren (17 percent), Pete Buttigieg (16 percent), and Joe Biden (15 percent) just two weeks before the Iowa Democratic caucuses. The candidate leading the final Des Moines Register poll has won the last six Iowa Caucuses, so that has led to Sanders becoming the frontrunner per the political betting odds.

WHO WILL WIN THE 2020 IOWA DEMOCRATIC CAUCUSES?

BERNIE SANDERS +100 (+175 ON 12/18)
JOE BIDEN +200 (+300 ON 12/18)
PETE BUTTIGIEG +400 (+110 ON 12/18)
ELIZABETH WARREN +700
AMY KLOBUCHAR +2500
ANDREW YANG +2500
TOM STEYER +5000
TULSI GABBARD +10000

It shouldn’t be a surprise to see Bernie Sanders performing well in Iowa. He shocked everyone in 2016 by narrowly losing to presumptive frontrunner Hillary Clinton here, setting off an extended battle for the Democratic Party’s nomination. Sanders earned 49.59 percent of the vote compared to 49.84 percent for Clinton, and he is still well-liked among Iowans.

Recent allegations from Elizabeth Warren could put a damper on his campaign over the next two weeks though. Warren alleged that Sanders told her in a closed-door meeting that a woman would never become POTUS, and she reaffirmed that at the most recent Democratic Debate. Sanders vehemently denied saying anything of the sort, but something like this certainly doesn’t help his case.

At even money, it’s hard to bet on Bernie Sanders to win Iowa. There isn’t much of a gap between the Vermont senator and the other three favorites to win the Democratic nomination, and Sanders could really suffer at the caucuses now that there is another progressive a little more towards the center in Warren.

A CUP OF JOE

There is some value in betting on Joe Biden to win Iowa at 2-1 odds. Biden has been ahead in the majority of polls, and he has more name recognition than any other candidate. That latter fact isn’t much of an advantage in Iowa these days as voters have been inundated with ads over the last few months, but Biden has withstood more than a few hits to remain one of the frontrunners.

Biden is ahead of Pete Buttigieg by three points according to the latest poll from Monmouth University, and his campaign remains resilient in spite of some obvious deficiencies. We are still pretty bearish on the former Vice President winning the Democratic Party nomination, but he has a decent chance to win in the Hawkeye State.

MAYOR PETE

After extended attacks, former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg has seen his momentum stall over the last two months. Although Buttigieg should have an easier time connecting with Iowa voters than the other frontrunners, he doesn’t seem to be the first choice of many Iowans, but he could be a compromise choice. He has stayed within a few percentage points of Sanders and Biden in the most recent state polls, and he represents a convenient middle ground.

Buttigieg is a centrist, and his youth makes him appealing to younger, more progressive voters. He has the potential to bridge the gap between Sanders and Biden not just in Iowa but nationally too, giving him a decent chance to win the state.

SENATOR WARREN

It’s been a very up and down last two months for Warren. She has vacillated between first and fourth place in state and national polls, but she is likely on the upswing again after a great debate performance last week. In an otherwise dull night, Warren was the only candidate that popped, and she could see an uptick in her numbers at just the right time.

Iowans traditionally break late, so last Tuesday’s performance may give her the momentum she needs to pull off the upset. The better bet is probably on Warren to win the Democratic Party nomination though. She is currently 8-1 to become the second straight woman nominated by the party, and a surge in Iowa could lead to a win in New Hampshire.

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