Bernie Sanders is a Heavy Favorite to Claim New Hampshire on Tuesday

The Iowa Caucuses were an abject disaster, so everyone is excited for the New Hampshire Primary to give us a clear winner. The race to win the Democratic Party nomination is just as unsettled as it was before Iowa, but we may soon have a true frontrunner. Bernie Sanders is the current favorite to be the Democratic Party’s candidate in the 2020 Presidential Election, and a resounding victory in New Hampshire could give him a significant boost nationally.

WHO WILL WIN THE 2020 NEW HAMPSHIRE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY?

BERNIE SANDERS -500
PETE BUTTIGIEG +300
JOE BIDEN +1400
ELIZABETH WARREN +2000
ANDREW YANG +3300
AMY KLOBUCHAR +5000
TOM STEYER +5000
TULSI GABBARD +10000

Sanders easily won New Hampshire over Hillary Clinton in 2016, but the loaded nature of this year’s primary means that the result is less certain. While Sanders has been ahead in the last 12 polls that have been released in the Granite State, he has yet to be the first choice among more than 30 percent of respondents. His polling average is 26 percent, five percent ahead of his main challenger in Pete Buttigieg, but we have seen a surge in the popularity of two centrist candidates over the last week.

It’s going to be very difficult to beat Bernie in New Hampshire though. New Hampshire and Vermont are very similar, and Sanders is wildly popular in the state in which he has been a senator for the last 13 years. His policies resonate with New England voters, as many in New Hampshire lean more left than the rest of the country, so he’s a deserved favorite at this price even if he is far from a sure thing.

MAYOR PETE’S MOMENTUM

Buttigieg’s surprising performance in Iowa has given his campaign a shot in the arm. He was polling at under 14 percent before last Monday, trailing Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Joe Biden, but Mayor Pete’s victory declaration led to a surge in the polls in New Hampshire. He is now polling at 20.9 percent, and his numbers have seen a steady increase over the last week.
That has led to Buttigieg supplanting Biden as Sanders’ primary challenger in the Granite State. Buttigieg is very popular among white voters, and New Hampshire’s demographics will give the former Mayor of South Bend a boost he won’t have when the campaign moves to states with a more diverse pool of residents like South Carolina and Nevada. His exponential growth in the polls could lead to him pulling off the upset here, so Mayor Pete is a decent bet at 3-1 to win New Hampshire.

BIDEN IS FALLING FAST

Van Jones said it best when he stated that Joe Biden received a stay of execution in Iowa. The former Vice President did not fare well in exit polls, and it seemed obvious that Biden was going to be in for a rough night. However, the Iowa Democratic Party’s bungling of the caucuses allowed Biden to escape relatively unscathed.
That won’t be the case in New Hampshire. Biden has been bottoming out in state and national polls as it becomes increasingly obvious that the former frontrunner doesn’t have anything close to the gravitas of Barack Obama. He is in a rut when it comes to fundraising, and he can’t build the same broad coalition that Obama was able to build. Biden already has an eye on preserving his firewall in South Carolina, so New Hampshire isn’t his priority.

KLOBUCHAR HAS A CHANCE

Other than Buttigieg, the biggest winner in Iowa was Amy Klobuchar. The Minnesota senator needed a decent performance in the Hawkeye State, and she got what she needed in order to bolster her candidacy. Klobuchar was polling at less than five percent in New Hampshire before Iowa, but she is now polling at near 10 percent and could surprise on Tuesday.
It’s unlikely that Klobuchar wins in New Hampshire, but she should not be 50-1. Klobuchar has been surging in the polls, and she is gaining popularity among centrists. She is winning over an increasing number of Biden voters, so she could shock the world on Tuesday night.

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