McIlroy, Johnson Among Frontrunners For 2020 WGC-Mexico Championship

Adam Scott surprised the field last week at The Genesis Invitational. Rory McIlroy was favored to win the event and while he finished in a tie for fifth, it was Scott who beat the field with a -11. As we turn our attention to this week’s event – the WGC-Mexico Championship – the golf odds again show McIlroy as the favorite to win it. Is he a good bet to pull it out or is there value somewhere else? Let’s take a closer look at the field.

EVENT DETAILS

EVENT: WGC-MEXICO CHAMPIONSHIP
CATEGORY: PGA
DATE: FEBRUARY 20 – 23, 2020
LOCATION: CLUB DE GOLF CHAPULTEPEC – NAUCALPAN, MEXICO

PAST FIVE WINNERS

2019: DUSTIN JOHNSON
2018: PHIL MICKELSON
2017: DUSTIN JOHNSON
2016: ADAM SCOTT
2015: DUSTIN JOHNSON

As you can see by the history at this event, Dustin Johnson has plenty of success here. Not only is he the current champion, he’s won this event in three of the last five years. He also finished as the runner-up in 2011. Keep in mind that this event has been played at this course over the last three years and prior to that, was hosted in Doral, Florida. This is a 72-hole, stroke play event but there is no cut.

WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT THE COURSE

This is a par-71 course with 7,355 yards of length. However, it doesn’t quite play to that length mostly in part to the elevation. Remember, Mexico is elevated, so think of it kind of like Coors Field in Denver, Colorado: the bars are going to fly further and this should feel like a course more so in the 6,800-yard range.

What we’re looking for here seems to be quite straightforward: look at players who are strong at approaches and golfers that do well on both Par 4’s and Par 5’s. Strokes Gained: Approach is one of the key stats you’ll want to delve into this week as golfers that are strong there should do well on this course.

MATCHUP TO BET: WEBB SIMPSON OVER SERGIO GARCIA, LEE WESTWOOD

This is a three-ball prop at BetOnline and I like Webb Simpson to finish better than Sergio Garcia and Lee Westwood. We’re looking at odds of +115 for Simpson compared to +185 for Garcia and +255 for Westwood.

Over his last 50 rounds, Simpson ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach, is first in Par 4 efficiency and is 14th in Par 5 efficiency. That’s exactly what we’re looking for.

Garcia hasn’t finished better than 33rd this season and finished 37th last week. Lee Westwood is coming off a missed cut at the Saudi International.

FIVE TRENDS WORTH NOTING FOR THE WGC-MEXICO

– -Each of the past three winners at this event had already notched a Top 5 or better on the PGA Tour that year.

–Adam Scott has only played twice over the last nine weeks but he’s won each of those starts.

–Jon Rahm’s T-17 last week was the first time in seven starts that he hasn’t placed in the Top 10.

–Over the last three years, 17 players who have made the top five here and over half are Europeans.

–Each of the last three winners have been Americans

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