McIlroy Favored To Win At 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational

The PGA Tour is heading to Bay Hill Golf Course this week where $9.3 million of prize money will be on the line at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Rory McIlroy is a heavy favorite to win this event as he won this event in 2018. However, as we saw last week with Tommy Fleetwood, the favorites don’t always cash. Fleetwood was the favorite heading into the Honda Classic and while he still finished in a respectable third place, it was 21-year-old South Korean Im Sung-jae that took home the win.

Fleetwood is again among the leaders in terms of the odds as he’s second in line behind McIlroy. Let’s take a closer look at this event and see what are the best bets on the board.

EVENT DETAILS

EVENT: ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL
CATEGORY: PGA
DATE: MARCH 5TH-8TH, 2020
LOCATION: BAY HILL GOLF COURSE

Franceso Molinari won last year’s edition of the Arnold Palmer Invitational as he conquered the course with a -12. He edged out Matthew Fitzpatrick, who finished two strokes back. Lately, it’s been a rough ride for Americans at this event. They had won four straight years from 2012-2015 with Tiger Woods winning twice and Matt Every winning back-to-back. Since then, though, it’s been four non-Americans. However, keep in mind that in three of the last four years, an American has placed second.

PAST FIVE WINNERS

2019: FRANCESCO MOLINARI
2018: RORY MCILROY
2017: MARC LEISHMAN
2016: JASON DAY
2015: MATT EVERY

WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT THE COURSE

This is one of the longer courses on the PGA Tour, so what we’re looking at here is distance. It’s not only Driving Distance that you’ll want to see in terms of the stats but you’ll also want to take a look at players who might be good at longer approaches. Strokes Gained: Approach is key as the players might be trying to hit the green from 200 yards and beyond.

Also keep an eye on players that do well on Par 5’s. The birdie rate for the Par 5’s last year was 35%.

A GOOD PROP TO BET: SCHAUFFELE FOR TOP 5

One guy that should do well on this course is Xander Schauffele. He’s in the second tier of golfers at +2000, which is a long way away from McIlroy at +500 but he’s still just fifth in line in terms of the odds. However, there are some good props on the board with him at -500 to make the cut and +450 to finish in the Top 5.

Over his last 50 rounds of action, he’s 12th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and is fourth in Par 5 efficiency. He’s also currently second in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and fourth in scrambling.

His recent form is also good as he’s placed in the Top 25 in each of his last three outings. He’s a good option for all sorts of props this week.

FIVE TRENDS WORTH NOTING FOR THE ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL

–Brooks Koepka has not finished better than 43rd in four straight events – including missing the cut in two of his last four starts.

–Of the past five winners, four were in the Top 5 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational the previous year.

–The past nine winners of this event all played the API at Bay Hill Golf Course the previous year and all of them made the cut.

–Six of the last nine winners at this event have been non-Americans.

–Each of the last three winners on the PGA Tour events have been priced at 30/1 or longer.

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