Wimbledon Odds Off The Board With Roger Federer Out

The 2020 men’s Wimbledon tournament exists in a state of uncertainty not just because it is several months away, but because Roger Federer – the eight-time Wimbledon champion – is currently rehabbing after an injury which required surgery. Federer made the final of last year’s tournament and had two championship points before losing to Novak Djokovic, 13-12, in a final set determined by a tiebreaker at 12 games all. Will Federer be a factor in the tennis futures this year? We already know that he’s out at the French Open and he could miss Wimbledon too. Here’s a closer look at what to expect.

FEDERER INJURY THROWS ODDS OFF THE BOARD, MAKING WIMBLEDON MORE MYSTERIOUS

The injury to Roger Federer was something which happened during his Australian Open campaign but was then re-evaluated after that tournament. It became clear that Federer’s pain and discomfort were not temporary, and were more structurally based than previously thought. Federer had a surgery and then announced that he would be out through the clay season, setting up a possible return to grass in June in Germany, where there are grass tournaments in both Stuttgart and Halle. Will Federer actually return in time for Wimbledon? That is not a guarantee just yet. Will Federer be extremely rusty, or will he be sharp enough to make another run at Wimbledon? It is hard to say right now, and the oddsmakers and other betting outlets are going to wait to see what goes on with Federer’s rehab process before they post odds on the men’s Wimbledon tournament. It makes all the sense in the world to do so, given how central a presence Federer has been at Wimbledon over the years. Federer not only has eight Wimbledon titles, but four other Wimbledon finals. If he is healthy and in good form, he ought to make the semis at least but health and form are both genuine question marks several months out.

WHO WOULD BENEFIT THE MOST IF FEDERER IS OUT

The biggest beneficiary would obviously be Novak Djokovic. Even though Djokovic has never lost to Federer in a Wimbledon final (3-0), he has been tested by Federer in each of those finals. Two went five sets and one of them went four sets. Djokovic is threatened less by Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon than by Federer, given that Federer’s record and legacy on grass surpass what Rafa has done on lawns. Nadal would certainly benefit from Federer’s absence as well; Nadal lost to Federer in last year’s Wimbledon semifinals. Yet, Nadal wouldn’t necessarily become the favorite to win the title because of Federer’s possible absence; Djokovic would be the unquestioned favorite as the owner of five Wimbledon championships, which matches the great Bjorn Borg.

Among players outside the Big 3 of Djokovic, Nadal and Federer, the player most likely to benefit from a possible Federer absence would likely be Stefanos Tsitsipas. Dominic Thiem is a clay-and-hardcourt player, not a good grass player. Alexander Zverev is similar to Thiem. Daniil Medvedev is not comfortable on grass. Tsitsipas shows the most potential on grass among the younger ATP stars in their early 20s. He could find a path to the semifinals if Federer is not in his way. The draw would obviously influence everyone’s odds, but Tsitsipas is the player who could probably take advantage of a Federer-free quarter if he gets such an opportunity at Wimbledon this summer.

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