Biden’s Big Victories on Super Tuesday Make Him a Heavy Favorite to Be the Democratic Nominee

It’s hard to overstate just how big Super Tuesday was for Joe Biden. Biden was projected to win just a handful of states according to both the political betting odds and the prognosticators, but the former Vice President surpassed even the rosiest of expectations by claiming victory in 10 states. He surged past Bernie Sanders in the total delegate count, and that has led to Biden becoming the clear frontrunner going forward in the race for the Democratic Party nomination.

WHO WILL BE THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE IN THE 2020 UNITED STATES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

JOE BIDEN -600
BERNIE SANDERS +400
HILLARY CLINTON +2500

Biden’s historic Super Tuesday performance could not have happened without some help from other candidates. Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar both dropped out of the race just before Super Tuesday and threw their support behind Biden, leading to a coalescing of the centrist vote in the party. The establishment then through its support behind Biden in a big way, helping Biden overcome the odds in places no one expected.

The former Vice President was a massive underdog in Massachusetts, Maine, Minnesota, and Texas per the political betting odds, but he ended up pulling off the upset in each state. Each one of those victories was a resounding victory for Biden, but the two biggest victories were in Massachusetts and Texas. In Massachusetts, Sanders and Elizabeth Warren were the logical favorites to win due to their proximity to the state and their politics, and a centrist like Biden was given little chance. However, Biden earned 33.8 percent of the vote, beating Sanders by over seven points.

Winning in Texas was even more surprising given Sanders’ popularity among Latino voters. Sanders was ahead in 11 of the 12 polls before Super Tuesday, and he was expected to win big in the state considering how much money he spent advertising and organizing in the Lone Star State. However, younger voters failed to go to the polls in the numbers that other groups did, leading to a huge win for Biden.

It’s going to be tough for Sanders to win the nomination from here. The self-described socialist is considered too left wing for the party brokers, and there have already been multiple reports that he would lose a brokered convention. The centrist wing of the Democratic Party mobilized against him in 2016, and it moved against Sanders this year too. Superdelegates have indicated they would not support him if he doesn’t have the majority he needs to claim the nomination without a brokered convention, and even if he has a plurality of votes, Biden will almost certainly be the choice.

That puts the pressure on Bernie to swing the momentum back in his direction after a tough last five days. There will be 316 delegates at stake on March 10 with the biggest prize being Michigan. Biden and Sanders have been running close to each other in the state over the last month, but Biden’s victory in Minnesota makes him the favorite next Tuesday. The former VP is also going to be favored in Mississippi and Missouri, while Washington will almost certainly go to Sanders.

The best hope for Sanders going forward is to trounce Biden at the next Democratic debate on March 15. With all the other candidates off the stage (sorry Tulsi Gabbard), all the attention will be on Sanders and Biden, and the former has proven to be much better on the debate stage than the latter. Sanders has been more cogent and articulate in his thoughts than Biden, and the former Vice President has struggled with the spotlight on him for an extended period of time.

With that in mind, look for Sanders to be on the offensive next Sunday night. He knows he must go all-out in what could be the last debate in order to win the nomination, and at 78 years old, he knows he is unlikely to run in 2024.

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