Best Bets at the 2021 Wells Fargo Championship
We saw an unlikely winner at last week’s Valspar Championship. Sam Burns beat the field as an 80-1 underdog to win his first ever PGA Tour event. Burns’ 17-under performance was impressive considering the difficulty of Copperhead, and there is another tough course on the schedule this week. The PGA Tour will head to Charlotte’s Quail Hollow Golf Course, a course that is consistently one of the most difficult par-71s on the tour.
Event: Wells Fargo Championship
Category: PGA Tour
Date: May 6 – May 9, 2021
Location: Quail Hollow Golf Course, Charlotte, North Carolina
2019: Max Homa -15
2018: Jason Day -12
2017: Brian Harman -10
2016: James Hahn -9
2015: Rory McIlroy -21
The most impressive performance at this course was given by Rory McIlroy when he won his second Wells Fargo Championship in 2015. McIlroy had previously claimed the 2010 title by shooting 15-under, winning by four strokes, but he lapped the field six years ago. He shot a course record 21-under over the span of four days, winning the Wells Fargo Championship by a tournament record seven strokes.
Max Homa was the most recent winner of the Wells Fargo Championship back in 2019. Last year’s tournament was cancelled due to COVID, so he is the defending champion heading into the 2021 edition. Homa took an advantage of shooting eight-under on Friday to move into a tie for the lead and closed out the tournament with a four-under on Sunday to win by three strokes.
Don’t expect a lot of red numbers on the scoreboard in this tournament. According to Rob Bolton, the average round at Quail Hollow in the most recent tournament was a 71.76, and we saw an average of 72.13 per round here in 2018. This is the longest par-71 on the PGA Tour at over 7,500 yards, so big hitters are rewarded here.
The last three holes are one of the most challenging stretches you will find on the PGA Tour. They are the three most difficult holes at Quail Hollow in terms of scoring average, rising in ascending order from No. 16. This stretch is nicknamed The Green Mile, as the par-4 No. 16 is 506 yards and the par-4 No. 18 is 494 yards.
Value Play to Win the Tournament: Bryson DeChambeau +1200
DeChambeau is one of the favorites here at 12-1, and his power gives him an advantage over the rest of the field. We haven’t seen a lot of great golf from “Beefy Bryson” over his last two events, but DeChambeau won the Arnold Palmer Invitational and finished T3 at The PLAYERS Championship. The winner of the last US Open finished fourth here in 2018, and he shot 65 and 66 on Friday and Saturday after a rough opening round.
Top 5 Prop: Rory McIlroy +400
The last several months haven’t been easy for McIlroy. He has just one T5 and four T10 finishes since September, and he failed to make it to the weekend at either The PLAYERS Championship or the Masters. This will be his first event since failing to make the cut at Augusta National, and he has had a lot of success on this course. McIlroy’s very first PGA Tour win came here, so this is a great bounce back spot for McIlroy.