Best Bets for UFC Fight Night 161

By BetOnline October 10, 2019

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Two of the biggest names in women’s Mixed Martial Arts will go head-to-head when Joanna Jedrzejczyk battles Michelle Waterson in the main event at the UFC Fight Night 161 card on Saturday. While that women’s strawweight showdown has the potential to feature fireworks, we are more concerned about which fights will give us the best potential to make money when the UFC invades the Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida. Here is a look at the three best bets on the main card for the UFC Fight Night 161 event.

JOANNA JEDRZEJCZYK (15-3) VS. MICHELLE WATERSON (17-6)
ODDS: JEDREZEJCZYK -330

Waterson has quickly turned her career trajectory around with three straight wins over Cortney Casey, Felice Herrig and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Now she is looking for the biggest victory of her career against one of the most established fighters in the world. While Jedrzejczyk deserves all of the credit that she has received, it’s fair to speculate about how the timing of this fight could work out terribly for the former champion. After all, Waterson comes into this fight as confident as she has ever been, riding a wave of momentum and she is about to leave it all on the line for a chance to shock the world.

Meanwhile, Jedrzejczyk is coming off a tough decision loss to a lesser fighter in Valentina Shevchenko and has now lost three of her last four bouts overall – including the back-to-back defeats at the hands of Rose Namajunas. While it’s true that all of those fighters are elite, it’s safe to wonder whether Jedrzejczyk deserves to be laying this kind of number. I’ll take a shot with the dog here as this line is too high.

PICK: WATERSON

CUB SWANSON (25-11) VS. KRON GRACIE (5-0)
ODDS: GRACIE -152

Unlike Jedrzejczyk, Gracie enters this co-main event bout as the favorite but he’s also a very hungry fighter entering into the prime of his career. The 31-year-old Brazilian has won each of his first five fights via submission, including most recently a first-round stoppage victory over Alex Caceres in his UFC debut. While Swanson will be the most experienced fighter that Gracie has ever fought, he is also on the tail end of four straight losses in which he has looked like a shadow of his former self. This feels like a stepping stone matchup for Gracie and I expect him to take that next step and earn the win.

PICK: GRACIE

MATT FREVOLA (7-1-1) VS. LUIS PENA (7-1)
ODDS: PENA -161

Pena is considered a potential rising star in MMA as the native of Naples, Italy that has made his way overseas to chase a title belt in the UFC. Coming off a TKO win over Matt Wiman in his last fight, Pena will be looking to pick up where he left off against an opponent he should be able to beat.

While Frevola is coming off a decision win over Jalin Turner, he has also gone 1-1-1 in his last three bouts overall. He’s going to look to take this fight to the ground as that’s where he thrives but I don’t know that he’ll have success here. Pena has sizable height and reach advantages. That should allow Pena to keep his distance and just tee-off.

I envision Pena keeping this fight standing, so when you consider his punching power and tenacity, it makes sense to side with the rising star in this one.