The Biggest Line Moves From The UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik Card

The Ultimate Fighting Championship is headed to the nation’s capital for its upcoming UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik fight card. The Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C. will host an absolutely loaded event headlined by a heavyweight bout between Alistair Overeem and Jairzinho Rozenstruik.

We took a closer look at this fight card in order to determine whether the line movements leading up to this event could help tip us off about which fighters the smart money is on. Here is a look at the biggest line moves from the UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik card.


We’ve seen a little bit of movement in the Calvillo-Rodriguez bout as bettors seem to like Rodriguez in this spot. Even though Calvillo is coming off back-to-back wins over Poliana Botelho and Cortney Casey, Rodriguez has moved up from -113 to -128.

Rodriguez is a big strawweight that is more than capable of dictating the pace of this fight as long as she stays on her feet against the Muay Thai specialist Calvillo. Calvillo only has two knockouts in her eight wins, so she’ll be looking to end this via submission – if possible. Five of Rodriguez’s wins have been by knockout (with six others by decision), so a submission is not typically in her plans. The challenge for Calvillo is that Rodriguez has great takedown defense, defending 84% of takedown attempts.

Both fighters are evenly matched. They’re both 32 and while Rodriguez is the No. 9 ranked strawweight, Calvillo is right behind her at No. 10.


Yadong has won seven straight fights heading in to this matchup including each of his first four fights in the UFC. After knocking out both Felipe Arantes and Alejandro Perez among his last three wins, Yadong could be primed for another positive result against a veteran fighter that has split his last two contests in Stamann.

The betting public took note of the matchup and the money they put down on Yadong helped push this line from Yadong -170 to -210. Stamann could be a decent upset pick at this point. He’s 18-2 in his MMA career and is rated the No. 9 Bamtamweight, according to the UFC rankings.

THIAGO ALVES (13-14-0) VS. TIM MEANS (28-11-1)

When this bout was first announced, Means debuted as the favorite to win at -210. However, that price tag was still seen as decent value for those that felt strongly that Means would have no issue getting the job done and winning this head-to-head matchup with Alves. Means has moved from -210 to -250 after a substantial amount of money came in on this fight. While Alves is now listed at +210 to win, the value might still not be good enough to take a chance on him in this one. Means has dropped three of his last four overall, but he should be able to get back on track against an opponent that has been just as bad of late and is even actually older than him. Means probably wins this fight but there isn’t much value when it comes to putting money down on him at this point.

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