UFC 304 Co-Main Event Betting Odds & Fight Preview: Aspinall vs. Blaydes 2

Overview

• Date: Saturday, July 27, 2024
• Location: Co-op Live, Manchester, England
• Time: Early Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
• How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+), Prelims (ESPN), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
• Odds: UFC at BetOnline

Event Highlights and Changes

UFC 304 will be held at Co-op Live in Manchester, England, on July 27th.

The main event features UFC welterweight champion Leon Edwards against American contender Belal Muhammad.

The co-main event promises to be a big draw for fans- and sees interim UFC heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall defend his title against Curtis Blaydes.

Here’s a detailed breakdown of the fighters and odds for the UFC 304 co-main event.

Aspinall vs Blaydes: Fighter Backgrounds

Tom Aspinall (+215)

• Record: 14-3
• UFC Record: 7-1
• Recent Fight: Won the interim UFC heavyweight title with a 69-second knockout over Sergei Pavlovich.
• Notable Information: Aspinall’s only UFC loss came due to a leg injury 15 seconds into his first fight against Blaydes. All his UFC wins have been stoppages before the end of the second round.

Curtis Blaydes (-255)

• Record: 18-4-0-1
• Ranking: No. 4 UFC Heavyweight
• Recent Fight: Knockout win over Jailton Almeida in March.
• Notable Information: Blaydes has a strong wrestling background, leading the UFC heavyweight division with 62 takedowns. He is 4-1 in his last five fights, with his only loss being a KO defeat to Sergei Pavlovich.

 Head To Head Fighter Statistics

Tom Aspinall	Fighter	Curtis Blaydes
14-3-0	Record	18-4-0
6′ 5″	Height	6′ 4″
261 lbs	Weight	257 lbs
78″	Reach	80″
Orthodox	Stance	Orthodox
7.72	Sig Strk LPM	3.53
68.08	Sig Strk Acc	60.44
3.46	Takedown Average	5.72
100.00	Takedown Accuracy	53.45
1.73	Submission Average	0.00

Betting Breakdown

Tom Aspinall

Strengths

• Fast Starter: Six first-round stoppages and one at 1:09 of Round 2 in his UFC wins.
• Striking and BJJ: Excellent striking and a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
• Mobility: Light on his feet, moves quickly and avoids strikes well.
• Striking Statistics: Highest strikes landed per minute (7.72), best striking differential (4.95), and striking accuracy (66%).
• Defensive Stats: Absorbs 2.77 significant strikes per minute with a striking defense of 66%.
• Takedown Efficiency: Averages 3.46 takedowns per 15 minutes with 100% accuracy and defense.

Weaknesses

• Injury History: Has faced setbacks due to injuries.

Curtis Blaydes

Strengths

• Wrestling Dominance: All-time leader in UFC heavyweight takedowns (62).
• Improved Striking: Has shown significant improvements in striking in recent fights.
• Top Control: Holds the UFC heavyweight record for top position time (1:06:09).

Weaknesses

• Decreased Takedown Attempts: Only three takedowns in his past six fights, indicating a shift towards striking.
• Takedown Defense: Relatively low takedown defense at 31%.
• Striking Statistics: Lands 3.53 significant strikes per minute with 50% accuracy but absorbs 1.83 significant strikes per minute.

Key Matchup Insights

• Aspinall’s Quickness: His speed and ability to avoid strikes will be crucial against Blaydes’ power and wrestling.
• Blaydes’ Wrestling: Needs to utilize his wrestling more effectively to neutralize Aspinall’s striking and grappling skills.

The winner of this interim heavyweight title bout could potentially face the victor of Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic or be elevated to undisputed champion if either of those fighters retires.

Best Bets:  

Tom Aspinall’s superior athleticism and versatility make him a more well-rounded fighter compared to Curtis Blaydes. Considering his striking power and quickness, a good bet could be for Tom Aspinall to defeat Curtis Blaydes by knockout.