NBA Betting Picks: Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors

A potential NBA Finals preview on Thursday night as the defending champion Golden State Warriors head ‘North of the Border’ to take on the Toronto Raptors. The Raptors have emerged as the NBA’s best team at the quarter pole and have been not only dominant but consistently so. They’re 18-4 overall with identical 9-2 records on the road and at the Scotiabank Arena. In the other corner, the Golden State Warriors aren’t exactly ‘struggling’ at 15-7 but they’ve had some well publicized chemistry issues and have had a hard time wining on the road. They’re 11-2 at home but just 4-5 as a visitor.

There’s no better feeling than ‘rolling the dice’ and hitting a winner and so far that appears the Toronto Raptors have done just that with their acquisition of the mercurial Kawhi Leonard. Toronto sent well regarded DeMar DeRozen, Jakob Poeltl and a first round draft choice to San Antonio for Leonard and Danny Green. Leonard had become a huge distraction in San Antonio which made it a high risk trade for the Raptors. Making it an even higher risk—he’s in the final year of his contract and there’s no guarantee that he’ll re-sign with Toronto. Even with these extenuating circumstances it’s been a great trade for Toronto and Leonard is playing at a very high level. He’s doing it all—averaging over 24 PPG, over 8 rebounds per game and adding assists and steals in the process. Not bad numbers for a player who says that he’s still ‘learning his team’.

Golden State is far from being the wrecking crew that eviscerated the Cleveland Cavaliers in last year’s NBA Finals. It must be noted, however, that the NBA season is still in its early stages and there’s every reason to think that they’ll get on the same page well before the playoffs. They appear to have shaken their funk of early November which saw them lose four straight and six of eight. They’ve now won three straight though they continue to struggle against the pointspread and are currently on a 2-9 ATS run. Given their status as a ‘public team’ and the league’s dominant franchise over the past few years these ATS struggles aren’t a huge surprise.

Toronto hasn’t been a great pointspread play either despite their early season success. They stand at 12-10 against the spread though they’re just 5-6 versus the number on their home floor. In most situations they’re at or just under ‘breakeven’ with their most impressive situational stat being a 6-2 SU/5-3 ATS mark against opponents with winning records. With their SU success, however, they might just be a bit overvalued here. More significantly, they’re catching the Warriors without Stephen Curry who will miss this game with a groin injury. He’s definitely a huge part of the Warriors’ success but the line appears to have overcompensated for his absence. The last time the Warriors played at Toronto was on January 13 when Golden State was a 5.5 point road favorite. This against a Raptors team that finished 59-23 last season. Curry is good but we’re looking at a 15 point swing in the other direction and that’s just too much.

BET GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS +9.5 OVER TORONTO RAPTORS