NBA Pacific Division and Western Conference Futures Betting Value Teams

To look at the latest NBA futures betting odds it’s basically the Lakers and Clippers and everyone else. This is true whether you’re looking at divisional, conference or championship futures odds. Since betting odds markets are indicative of public opinion more than anything else this isn’t surprising.

The overwhelming media coverage of the two Los Angeles teams combined with their support from the betting public does strongly suggest that they might be overvalued relative to their ‘true odds’ of winning the various superlatives referenced above. This isn’t a reflection of the teams themselves–it’s ‘Sports Handicapping 101’. Teams that have massive popularity and/or interest with the general public are by definition overpriced relative to their ‘true odds’. The flip side is also true–in a market where there are one or more dominant ‘public’ teams every other team is likely *undervalued* due to the same phenomenon.

With so much of an emphasis on the Lakers and Clippers it presents a very unique value opportunity on the rest of the league. Simply put, a lot has to happen for either LA team to win the division, conference or league championship. Players have to stay healthy, the talent has to ‘mesh’ and play well together and the all important team chemistry must be positive. Even with all of the talent on hand for both Los Angeles teams that means there’s a lot that has to go right for them to reach or exceed expectations.

What this all means–if you can find teams in these futures markets other than the Lakers and Clippers that have a decent chance of winning it’s going to be an overlay situation.

ODDS TO WIN THE PACIFIC DIVISION

In this market, the Clippers are a -125 chalk with the Lakers next at +175. What is mind blowing about the low prices on the Clippers in every proposition like this is that they’re a team that as of yet hasn’t even played together. The experience of other ‘Dream Teams’ in the NBA over the past decade suggests that they might need a season to get all of the kinks worked out and to get used to playing together. We’ve talked about the Clippers relative valuation with the Lakers in several contexts over the past week and this is another case where the purple and gold could be undervalued. Also, it’s tough to pass up Golden State–even with their well documented injury issues they’re still going to be a very competitive team.

BET LOS ANGELES LAKERS +175 TO WIN THE PACIFIC DIVISION
BET GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS +500 TO WIN THE PACIFIC DIVISION

ODDS TO WIN THE WESTERN CONFERENCE

This could be another good spot to back the Lakers but we’re going to look for even more value. It’s tough to justify the pricing on the Portland Trailblazers. They made the Conference Finals and yet they’re priced at +2000. They return Damien Lillard and CJ McCollum who might be the best starting backcourt in the NBA. Center Jusuf Nurkic is ahead of schedule rehabbing from his nasty ankle injury. A lot of new players but adding Hassan Whiteside was a great move–Blazers look just as dangerous as last year and could be stronger and more physical.

The Utah Jazz won 50 games last year and managed a significant upgrade during the offseason. Adding Mike Conley, Jr. from Memphis was a huge move–he can score, dish and defend which makes him a perfect fit for the Jazz. Not a lot of teams can say their starting small forward is ‘rugged’ but Utah can thanks to the acquisition of 6’8″ Bojan Bogdanovic who played for Indiana last season. They also added Ed Davis who was the Brooklyn Nets’ leading rebounder last season and he could have been the biggest steal of free agency. He could take his game to the next level with the Jazz. Utah is absolutely loaded and will have one of the nastiest defensive units in the league.

BET PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS +2000 TO WIN WESTERN CONFERENCE
BET UTAH JAZZ +900 TO WIN THE WESTERN CONFERENCE

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