Plucky Orlando Magic Look To Even Series With Toronto

The Orlando Magic got the attention of the Toronto Raptors with their Game 1 victory at the Air Canada Centre. The Raptors responded in kind but should still be well aware that they’re not dominating this series even though they hold a 2-1 lead after winning the past two games. Game Four will be back at the Amway Center and the Raptors have the opportunity to head back to Canada with a commanding 3-1 lead should they win here. Orlando will try to prevent that and head North of the Border with the series tied 2-2.

Toronto played well down the stretch in the regular season winning 7 of their last 8 SU going 6-2 against the spread. The end of the regular season might not be overly significant in the NBA playoffs though there are plenty of sports experts that would argue to the contrary. What is more significant, however, is that NBA pointspread record which suggests that the Raptors might have been a bit undervalued during that stretch. With a top team like Toronto showing signs of being priced too low against the number there’s every reason to think oddsmakers would want to correct that heading into the players.

The opposite dynamic is in play for Orlando. The Magic were part of a five team scrum at the bottom of the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference fighting for three spots. They were in a situation where they couldn’t afford to lose if they wanted to play in the postseason and from March 14 until the end of the schedule they went on a run of 11-2 SU/10-3 ATS. The Magic have been an underrated proposition all year but there’s not much to suggest that even that highly profitable run got the ‘public’ to wake up and notice. A case can be made that they remain undervalued and have covered two of the three games in this series.

The Magic demonstrated the most improvement this season on the defensive end. Last season, they finished #21 in the league in points per game allowed. This year, they were #5. Obviously, there’s more to the game than defense but it’s not uncommon for teams that play ‘tough D’ to be good teams against the spread. Teams that put up good effort on the defensive end usually bring that same level of effort to all phases of the game. In many cases, good effort = pointspread success on a micro and macro level and particularly in the NBA.

The Raptors have been a very mediocre performer against the NBA pointspread in several situation relevant to this game. They’re just 20-21 ATS away from home and they’re 30-38 ATS as a favorite. As a road favorite, they were just 11-15-1. After a win, they’ve gone 27-31-1 against the number. Orlando went 31-23-2 as an underdog this season. For whatever reason, they ‘had the number’ of the Atlantic Division going 16-5 ATS and usually responded well when stepping up in class. Against teams with winning record, the Magic are 24-14 ATS on the season and 13-5 ATS since the midway point of the campaign.

The head to head machup shows that Orlando has gotten the best of Toronto against the number covering 8 of the last 14 meetings but has been a particularly good investment at home where the Magic are 5-2 ATS versus the Raptors. Tough defensive battles have been typical of these teams with 7 straight in Orlando and 10 of 14 overall staying Under the total. We’ll bet this accordingly and expect Orlando to turn in another solid effort.

BET ORLANDO MAGIC +5 OVER TORONTO RAPTORS
BET ORLANDO MAGIC/TORONTO RAPTORS UNDER 207