Sacramento Kings Host Cleveland Cavaliers As NBA Regular Season Winds Down

The NBA regular season has only a handful of games remaining and unlike most years the ‘playoff chase’ is almost completely devoid of drama. There is an interesting logjam at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings where four teams within 1/2 game of each other are competing for three playoff spots. With that exception, the postseason field is set and for the most part the playoff seedings already falling into place.

For a basketball handicapper, a change of approach is necessary in the waning days of the season. During the regular season proper there are a multitude of factors that go into the NBA handicapping process–intrinsic talent, motivation, fatigue, injuries, scheduling, matchups, etc. At this stage of the year there is only one salient factor–which teams are still interested in playing and which teams aren’t. If you can find the teams that still have some enthusiasm and play *on* them or isolate the teams that are just phoning it in and play *against* them you’re well positioned to turn a profit.

This matchup might be the ‘best case scenario’–a game where a team that we expect to turn in a good effort taking on a team that really doesn’t care any more. Let’s start with the visiting Cleveland Cavaliers. When LeBron James left to join the Los Angeles Lakers via free agency there was every reason to think that the Cavaliers would be in for a tough season. No one expected them to be as bad as they turned out to be. Before the season, the Cavs Over/Under win total was a modest 30 or 31 games. With four games remaining (including this one) the Cavaliers have a mere 19 wins. They have the third worst record in the NBA and only the wretched performance of the New York Knicks this season has kept them out of the Eastern Conference basement. And forget about any desire by the Cavs to ‘finish strong’–they enter this game having lost 6 straight and 9 of 11 going 2-4 ATS in their last 6 and 5-5-1 ATS in their last 11 games. They’ve been especially horrible on the road with a record of 6-33 SU and 17-20-2 ATS.

Sacramento, meanwhile, has made some marked improvement this year over last. With four games remaining in the regular season (including this one) the Kings have already improved by 11 wins over last year’s total. There’s every reason to think they’ll continue to improve next season. They’ve started to regain a decent home court advantage going 23-16 SU/24-14-1 at the Golden 1 Center. Another good sign–their performance as a favorite both at home and on the road. As a home chalk, they’re 13-2 SU/10-5 ATS. On the road, they’re 7-2 SU/ATS laying points. Overall as a favorite that’s a record of 20-4 SU/17-7 ATS. For a young team, having the focus to beat the teams that they’re “supposed” to beat is a very positive sign.

Kevin Love is listed as questionable for this game with a sore shoulder and he’s still good for a strong effort. Even if he does play, it’s doubtful that his teammates will have that same commitment, particularly on the defensive end where Cleveland has allowed an average of 120.5 PPG against during their 6 game losing streak. In the only meeting between the teams so far this season Sacramento ripped Cleveland 129-110 winning easily as a -3 road favorite. The current NBA betting lines are showing a substantially higher price for the Kings in this game but since their prior meeting in December these teams have gone in different directions.

BET SACRAMENTO KINGS -9.5 OVER CLEVELAND CAVALIERS