Toronto Raptors Challenge Golden State Warriors In NBA Finals

If you’ve followed our coverage of the Toronto Raptors throughout the NBA playoffs you’ve no doubt recognized a recurring theme. The Raptors have done just enough to get by and have yet to look like a team legitimately capable of competing for the NBA Championship. Kawhi Leonard has been downright monstrous but his teammates have left him hung out to dry on a number of occasions. Leonard is a singular talent and capable of winning games on his own, but that’s not how you win an NBA Championship.

That all changed during the Eastern Conference Finals against the Milwaukee Bucks. Toronto was down 0-2 as they returned home to play Game 3 at the Scotiabank Arena and it looked as if they would be another team for the Bucks to steamroll over en route to the NBA Finals. Milwaukee finished only 2 games ahead of Toronto in the regular season but in Games 1 & 2 against the Bucks they looked significantly superior to the Raptors. Not surprising, since they had looked nearly unbeatable throughout the playoffs rolling to a 10-1 SU/ATS record. For the first time in the series, however, the Raptors fought with the tenacity of their namesake in Game 3.

They definitely weren’t on their ‘A Game’ offensively as they shot just 39.2% from the field but the Toronto defense was swarming all over the Bucks as well holding Milwaukee to just 37.3%. Another great performance by Kawhi Leonard (36 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists 2 steals and a blocked shot) but he got plenty of help with a total of 5 Raptors in double figures including Pascal Siakam and Marc Gasol who came up big on the boards as well. Nothing came easy for Toronto that night but they scrapped to a double overtime win. As bigtime players often do, Leonard came up huge at the best possible time scoring 8 points in the decisive second overtime.

The expectation was that Milwaukee would come back strong in Game 4. They had done so all season long after a loss with an impressive record of 22-1 SU/19-4 ATS in that situation. It didn’t happen. Toronto won by 18 and at that point it was clear that the attitude of both teams had been transformed. The Bucks were ‘playing not to lose’ while the Raptors started to play like they believed they could win a NBA Championship. Now they get that opportunity against one of the most dominant NBA teams of the past couple of decades.

The Golden State Warriors never needed to ‘believe’ as did the Raptors. They knew full well that they could win a NBA Championship being as they had already won 3 of the past 4 titles. Their problem was focus–against the LA Clippers and early on against the Houston Rockets they had a ‘wake me when the finals begin’ vibe to their game. That changed when scoring machine Kevin Durant went down in Game 5 of the Houston series. On the surface, this appeared to be a horrible blow but ironically might have been the best thing that could have happened to Golden State for one key reason–it gave them the type of challenge that championship teams crave.

Golden State hasn’t lost since Durant went out and he’s definitely not going to play in Game 1. From the sound of it, he might not play at all in this series as his calf injury is worse than originally thought. He’s not been cleared for on-court activities which is not a good sign with the NBA Finals beginning in just over 24 hours. The Warriors got some good injury news as well as Andre Iguodala has been upgraded to ‘probable’ for Game 1. It’s not that the Warriors are a better team without Durant. Their focus, however, is significantly better and that’s exactly what they needed at this point in time.

The expectation is that Golden State will win this series and that’s reflected in the odds to win the NBA Finals. Golden State is -295 to win this series and that’s an implied probability of just under 75%. That’s also way too high. The Warriors should probably be favored in the series but at a significantly lower price. Toronto will have home court advantage and although the Warriors were tied for the best regular season road record in the league that’s definitely worth something.

On the other hand, it’s probably not much consolation to Golden State that the other team with a 27-14 road record this year was the Milwaukee Bucks. Toronto beat Golden State twice this year although they only covered one of these victories. They won 131-128 at home on November 29 but since the Warriors were without Steph Curry they gave a very strong effort and earned a cover as a +9.5 road underdog. Toronto won easily at Golden State on December 12 easily covering as a +8 underdog in a 113-93 victory.

Ultimately, the name of the game in sports betting is ‘finding value’. Beginners think that it’s ‘picking winners’ but if you find the value the wins take care of themselves. The Warriors could emerge as NBA Champions but the value in this series is clearly on the Toronto Raptors. The Raptors will have arguably the best all around player on the court in Kawhi Leonard and certainly the best interior scoring threat. The Raptors have a legitimate shot to win this series and certainly more of a shot than the price implies. Golden State has been overvalued all season long. That’s how a team that has gone 69-29 SU can lose -17.4 units against the spread. Only one team has lost more money for bettors this year–the New York Knicks. Toronto is playing their best basketball of the postseason and are a very nice value at the series price of +245.

BET TORONTO RAPTORS +245 OVER GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (SERIES PLAY)

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