2021 Liberty Bowl Preview: Texas Tech vs. Mississippi State

The Texas Tech-Mississippi State matchup gives the Liberty Bowl a lot of sizzle. The obvious and sexy plot point at the center of this game is the fact that former Texas Tech head coach Mike Leach will face his former school in a December bowl everyone is talking about.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Date: Tuesday, December 28th, 6:45 PM ET

Location: Liberty Bowl Stadium, Memphis, TN

CFB Odds: Mississippi State -8.5

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Matt Wells’ time in Lubbock came to an end just eight games into the 2021 campaign. Wells had failed to do much of anything in Lubbock, having gone 13-17 through three years before the Red Raiders canned him and gave the interim job to Sonny Cumbie, previously the team’s offensive coordinator. The team eventually hired Baylor associate head coach Joey McGuire to replace Wells. It’s a reshuffled coaching situation for Texas Tech entering this game. 

Texas Tech found an answer to its offensive limitations late in the season. Donovan Smith came off the bench and led the Red Raiders to an upset of Iowa State in a high-scoring game. He gives Texas Tech’s offense more upside in this game. The Red Raiders’ rushing leader only has 448 yards on the season. The Red Raiders aren’t likely to win this game by running the ball down Mike Leach’s throat. This game will be a fun one to watch. There will be a lot of passes.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Mike Leach’s Mississippi State Bulldogs are a pass-happy team. If you’ve followed Leach’s career at all, the traditional run game is almost nonexistent in Leach’s offense. All runs are schemed through the passing game, which is why Leach’s primary targets in recruiting are receivers capable of getting yards after the catch. Through the clever use of screens, slants, and other quick passing mechanisms, the Bulldog offense roars down the field while throwing the ball at least 40-50 times a game, typically more. The Bulldogs haven’t played a game this season where the ball has been thrown fewer than 34 times. They usually throw the ball near 50 times a game in Leach’s Air Raid. 

Leach has yet to fully acclimate to the SEC. He’s only in his second year at the helm of the Bulldogs, but his work at Washington State, in which he built the Cougars patiently at the start of his tenure there, shows that in four seasons, he usually gets his full operation rolling. His style of play takes a few recruiting classes. Interestingly, the team Leach is playing in this bowl game knows for a fact that the Air Raid offense Leach uses is a winning system which works. This is because Leach rose to prominence coaching at Texas Tech before he was controversially fired. Not only is Leach going to do everything he can to win this game, he’s going to set out to humiliate Texas Tech. Do not be surprised if Mississippi State tries to keep the foot on the gas pedal even if the Bulldogs are winning by a significant margin late in the game. Leach won’t care; this is his chance to send a message to the Red Raiders. It’s why the over is a good play here.

Outlook

Mike Leach will want to win this game, but he also has the talent and personnel to do so. Mississippi State won on the road at Auburn and Texas A&M this past season. It can certainly handle Texas Tech in a high-scoring game.

Red Raiders vs. Bulldogs Prediction:

Bulldogs 45, Red Raiders 34