College Football Betting: Arkansas State at UNLV

By BetOnline September 7, 2019

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You know times have changed when you’re not just blindly betting against UNLV every week. The long suffering Rebels have not been to a bowl game since the ‘Heart of Dallas Bowl’ in 2013 and have not won a bowl game since the ‘Las Vegas Bowl’ in 2000. Bobby Hauck did nothing in his five years as head coach turning in 4 two win seasons. He did deliver a 7-6 season in 2013, significant as it is the only winning season the Rebels have had in 18 years. In desperation UNLV turned to Tony Sanchez. Sanchez had achieved legendary status locally for making Bishop Gorman High School a powerhouse and at the very least figured he’d be good to draw some interest among Las Vegas fans.

ARKANSAS STATE AT UNLV
LINE: PICK
TOTAL: 64

Sanchez has definitely improved things at UNLV but the question is ‘have they improved enough’? He’s in the final year of his contract and has yet to turn in a winning season though the team is better for more wins every year than under Hauck and Mike Sanford before him. He’s also made the team more competitive and his 23-21-1 ATS run might be his biggest accomplishment. It certainly isn’t his 17-32 SU record. He’s now in a situation where a bowl eligible season could get him a contract extension while a losing season could get him sent back to the Nevada high school circuit.

The good news for Sanchez is that for the first time in ages the team has some talent on offense and depth on defense. The Rebels return 9 players on offense including the entire line, a talented group of wide receivers and a potential NFL level quarterback in Armani Rogers. The team is off to a decent start having won and covered against FCS Southern Utah last week. The schedule is something of a head scratcher with a lot of games somewhere between ‘tough’ and ‘winnable’. For example, games at Colorado State and Wyoming are winnable in terms of the Rebels talent but are both in tough scheduling spots at high altitude. The most difficult challenges are a 10/18 game at Fresno State along with tough games at Northwestern and Vanderbilt. The rivalry game with Nevada is in Reno this year and the Rebels are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 trips up North.

Arkansas State has turned in 8 consecutive winning seasons going 20-4 in conference. They’re a very balanced team that could have encountered some ‘bad luck’ over the past couple of seasons. They went 15-10 in the past two years despite owning a yardage edge over opponents of an average 104.5 yards per game. They’ve got a tough road game on deck against Georgia in Athens but that makes this game all the more important since realistically a loss here will have them in a 0-3 hole to start the season. Logan Bonner passed for four touchdowns against SMU last week and he should have some success moving the ball against a Rebels stop unit that ranked #121 in scoring defense and #119 in passing yards per game against a year ago.

Emotional edge could go to Arkansas State as well. Head coach Blake Anderson is currently on leave after the death of his wife and no doubt his team would like to lift his spirits with a victory. The Red Wolves’ defense did a good job shutting down the Rebels’ passing attack last year in a 27-20 win as Armani Rogers threw three interceptions. The ‘pick’em’ price on this game doesn’t show a lot of respect for UNLV’s ‘home field advantage’.