College Football: Michigan State Spartans at Michigan Wolverines

Michigan’s hopes of competing for a national championship or winning the Big Ten have gone up in smoke with losses to Wisconsin and Penn State, but the Wolverines can still get to 10 wins and have a respectable season. They can also win back-to-back games against Michigan State for the first time in 12 years with a win over the Spartans on Saturday. That will be easier said than done though as the Spartans have largely had the Wolverines’ number.

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS AT MICHIGAN WOLVERINES
CFB LINE: MICHIGAN -13.5
CFB TOTAL: 44

The Wolverines are favored by nearly two touchdowns over the Spartans in Ann Arbor this Saturday. Although Michigan State is 4-5, that’s a dangerous number since the Spartans had covered nine straight games in this series before failing to cover the CFB betting odds against Michigan last year. This rivalry has traditionally been low scoring, so it’s no surprise to see the total listed at 44.

RECENT HISTORY

Historically, Michigan State has largely been on the short end of the stick in its bid to best Michigan for the right to claim Paul Bunyan’s Axe. However, Mark Dantonio has done an excellent job of beating Michigan during his time in East Lansing, and the Spartans have ton eight of the last 11 games in this series. Michigan State has been excellent in Ann Arbor, going 4-1 in that stretch.

WHEN MICHIGAN HAS THE BALL

Jim Harbaugh has largely eschewed the passing game in recent weeks. Shea Patterson hasn’t been the fit that many expected for Michigan, so Harbaugh has turned to the ground game to churn out yards.

This offensive line has risen to the challenge with fantastic performances in blowout wins over Notre Dame and Maryland. The Wolverines easily covered the football betting line in both those victories, as they ran for more than 300 yards against the Irish and cruised to an easy victory against the Terps.

Michigan is averaging 4.2 YPC as a team, and Zach Charbonnet and Hassan Haskins have run for 985 yards and 13 touchdowns this year. However, this offense is still ranked 43rd in the nation per SP+ as the passing game has been hit or miss. Patterson has completed just 57.2 percent of his passes this season, averaging 7.5 YPA.

The Spartans have been excellent on defense once again. Dantonio’s defenses are typically some of the best in the Big Ten, and that’s no exception this year as Michigan State is allowing just 4.7 yards per play. This front seven has been especially stout, ranking in the top 15 nationally in run defense, and the Spartans have the 11th best defense in the country by SP+.

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE HAS THE BALL

Michigan State’s offense has had plenty of trouble moving the ball this year, and that’s why the total for this game is so low. The Spartans have the 84th best offense in the country per SP+ as Brian Lewerke has failed to develop over the course of his four years in East Lansing. He has completed just 55.7 percent of his passes this season, averaging 6.8 YPA.

Lewerke has been remarkably consistent, but that’s not a great thing. He has never completed more than 60 percent of his passes or averaged more than 7.0 YPA despite being Michigan State’s quarterback for the last three seasons. Lewerke’s numbers against Top 25 teams aren’t great either as he has completed under 50 percent of his passes for 5.0 YPA with one touchdown and three interceptions this year.

As always, Michigan State wants to establish the run. Michigan defensive coordinator Don Brown has done an excellent job on that front over the past couple years though, and the Spartans are averaging just 3.8 YPC coming into this game. The Wolverines are allowing 2.9 YPC, but Wisconsin did gash this front seven earlier in the season.

PREDICTION

It’s never easy to watch this game. The defenses typically dominate, and great offensive plays are few and far between. Michigan State is reeling after a loss to Illinois last week, and unlike past seasons, the Spartans have been blown out by the three best teams in the conference. Penn State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin all beat Michigan State by three touchdowns, so lay the points with Michigan.

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