College Football Preview – Oklahoma Sooners vs. West Virginia Mountaineers

Big 12 play will start in earnest this week. Conference favorite Oklahoma is still unbeaten and the team to beat this season, but the Sooners haven’t looked great to this point. That gives the West Virginia Mountaineers some hope they can pull off the upset after a big win over Virginia Tech last week in Morgantown.

Oklahoma is a hefty favorite at home against West Virginia this week. Both teams’ Big 12 opener will take place on Saturday, September 25, 2021, at 7:30 p.m. ET from Memorial Stadium in Norman, Oklahoma on ABC.

College Football Betting Odds

West Virginia +17

Oklahoma -17

Total 56

The Sooners routed FCS Western Carolina, but they only defeated their two FBS non-conference foes by a single score. Oklahoma was only able to knock off Tulane by five points in its season opener after the Green Wave came back late, and the Sooners were unable to pull away from Nebraska in a 23-16 win last week.

West Virginia’s loss to Maryland in its season opener doesn’t look bad considering the Terrapins are unbeaten. WVU hammered FCS Long Island in its second game before edging Virginia Tech by six points last week. The Mountaineers took a 17-point lead into halftime but nearly squandered it in the fourth quarter.

When Oklahoma Has the Ball

Spencer Rattler has not been as great as advertised this season. Most everyone expected Rattler to put up dizzying numbers like Oklahoma quarterbacks in the recent past, but the preseason Heisman Trophy betting favorite has not looked sharp. Rattler hasn’t been bad, completing 74.7% of his passes for 7.7 YPA with seven touchdowns and two interceptions, but that’s not what we’ve come to expect from a Lincoln Riley offense.

Don’t be surprised if Riley uses the run game more starting this weekend. Kennedy Brooks and Eric Gray have been able to move the chains well, as Brooks is averaging 6.2 YPC and Gray is averaging 5.6 YPC. This Oklahoma offensive line has been good, so the Sooners might lean on them more.

West Virginia hasn’t been that good on defense. The Mountaineers rank 60^th in scoring defense and 77^th in total defense nationally, but they have played two solid teams in Maryland and Virginia Tech. They rank 31^st per SP+, and that may be a better measurement of their actual play.

When West Virginia Has the Ball

Texas Tech transfer Jarret Doege is playing reasonably well for the Mountaineers. Doege is completing 60.2% of his passes for 729 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions through the first three weeks of the 2021 season. He has distributed the ball well with the top six receivers having between seven and 10 receptions, so opposing defenses haven’t been able to key in on tendencies.

The ground game has been good too. Garrett Greene has come off the bench to run the ball effectively when he lines up at quarterback, giving the Mountaineers a spark. Leddie Brown is the workhorse of the backfield with 265 yards and five touchdowns through three games (5.2 YPC average).

Oklahoma’s defense has been a lot better since Alex Grinch took over. The Sooners have one of the top run defenses nationally, but the pass defense has left something to be desired in 2021. They are allowing 8.4 YPA and 292.5 YPG through the air, so Doege could post big numbers on Saturday.

Prediction

The over is a nice play, but the better bet might be West Virginia. The Mountaineers are good enough to stay within the number, while the Sooners have struggled to put teams away.

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