Carolina is Going Quarterback at No. 1, but Anthony Richardson Would be a Huge Mistake

by Jonathan Willis.

Unless the Carolina Panthers end up throwing a Clayton Kershaw-esque curveball, a quarterback will be taken with the No. 1 overall pick for the 16th time in the last 22 years. It was unclear what the Chicago Bears would do at the top of the draft, but the Bears dealt the first pick in this year’s draft to the Panthers in exchange for two first-round picks, two second-round picks, and D.J. Moore.

There’s little doubt that owner David Tepper wants to make a splash by selecting a franchise quarterback considering what Carolina has dealt with at the position since Tepper bought the team from the recently departed Jerry Richardson in May 2018. Carolina has had five different players lead the team in passing over the last five years, as the Panthers have not been able to find a competent signal caller since parting ways with Cam Newton. Kyle Allen, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, and Baker Mayfield were all ineffective, and the team experimented with Will Grier and XFL star P.J. Walker. We even saw Newton brought back in 2021, but he was 0-5 as a starter and threw more interceptions than touchdowns.

Because of those failures with finding a quarterback in free agency, Carolina is going to turn towards the draft in order to address the position. Shortly after the Panthers traded for the No. 1 overall pick, we saw significant line movement on Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud to be the first player off the board. Stroud is now a -275 favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick by the NFL Draft betting odds. However, there are reports that the Panthers still haven’t made up their mind. Stroud, Alabama’s Bryce Young, and Florida’s Anthony Richardson are all reportedly in the mix to be the first player selected.

Carolina couldn’t be faulted for taking either Stroud or Young. Stroud was fantastic in the College Football Playoff against Georgia, throwing for 348 yards and four touchdowns against the Bulldogs in a 42-41 loss. He has the body that teams are looking for in a franchise quarterback, and he is the best pocket passer in the draft class.

Young would be a great pick too. He showed remarkable poise as a collegiate quarterback, and he didn’t have nearly the same weapons at receiver that Stroud did this past season. The knock on Young is his size as he is 5’10 and under 200 pounds, but he is an outstanding playmaker outside of the pocket.

However, if the Carolina Panthers are seriously considering taking Anthony Richardson with the No. 1 overall pick, they should immediately check themselves into Gamblers Anonymous. Whereas there is just one major concern with Stroud and Young, there are several red flags with Richardson.

If Richardson is taken in the first round, he would have the fourth-lowest career completion percentage of any quarterback selected that high in the last 25 years. The only three quarterbacks that were less accurate in college were Ryan Leaf, Kyle Boller, and Jake Locker, and all three of those signal-callers were huge busts at the next level.

Richardson was wildly inconsistent in college too, and that’s why Dan Mullen only used him in certain packages during his first two seasons in Gainesville. Billy Napier named Richardson his starter ahead of the 2022 campaign, and he was great in the season opener against Utah. However, Richardson was not sharp against either Kentucky or South Florida the next two weeks, and he spent the rest of the year chasing that performance in the opener.

There’s no denying that Richardson COULD be an elite player in the NFL, but he has a very low floor to go with his high ceiling. In the recent past, such a low floor would dissuade any team from taking a player with that skillset in the top ten. However, NFL teams are taking more and more risks at the position over the last several years.

This is a copycat league, and the success of Josh Allen over the last few seasons has skewed teams’ views of quarterbacks like him. Because Allen turned out to be a star, other teams now seem to believe that a player like Allen is the rule rather than the exception. That played a part in the New York Giants selecting Daniel Jones No. 6 overall in the 2019 NFL Draft, and that is why Richardson and Will Levis are both considered first-round picks. However, teams (and draft experts) seem to forget that Allen was on his way to being considered a bust through his first two seasons in the league until he suddenly figured out his accuracy issues. Rolling the dice with a raw talent like Richardson makes some sense later in the first round. His size, arm strength, and mobility make him an intriguing prospect if he can put it all together. However, it’s clear that he needs at least a year to develop, and he’s way too much of a risk to select with the No. 1 overall pick in next month’s draft. Any team that takes Richardson over Young or Stroud should slash ticket prices by half for the 2023 season because they are telling their fanbase they are punting on the upcoming campaign.

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