Friday Afternoon Quarterback: NFL Divisional Round

BY ADAM GREENE

Upsets in the Wild Card Round mean one thing in the divisional round; massive, frightening lines. Of our four games to choose from this weekend, three have at least a touchdown spread and one is already at double digits.

Overachieving in the first week of the playoffs only really impresses your fans. It’s not like a team can’t come from the wild card to the Super Bowl. It’s happened plenty of times now. Last year, though, the seeds played out in the divisional round. They did in 2017 too. In the 2016 season we saw two Wild Card teams, both division winners mind you, make it to the conference championship games only to fall.

The fact is, the last time a team that played on Wild Card weekend made the Super Bowl was during the 2012-13 season when the Baltimore Ravens, a four seed, upset the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship then went on to beat the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl XLVII.

You might think that, karma-wise, that could bode well for a Wild Card team since both those squads are back in the playoff field for the first time since that season. But karma doesn’t mean anything in the NFL or the Patriots would have gone 0-16 every year after 2007.

I don’t see anything crazy happening. Nope, all the excitement from our Wild Card week, including the execution of the Patriots’ dynasty did was give us some easy straight up picks to make this week. These spreads, though. Yikes.

Let’s get to it.

SATURDAY

MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-7, O/U: 44)

The Vikings backed into the playoffs so thoroughly they showed up to last week’s game with the Saints in hard hats and safety jackets. I guess that confused New Orleans into thinking the game would be delayed by some sort of road work as they themselves didn’t show up until the fourth quarter.

Minnesota shouldn’t be in the playoffs. If the Los Angeles Rams had done their job in the regular season, Kirk Cousins would be watching the game on his cough as he has for most of his career. The fun ends here. I don’t feel like we’re getting a 49ers vs Ravens rematch in Super Bowl LIII, but we’ll at least get to talk about it another week. 49ers 34, Vikings 17

TENNESSEE TITANS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (-10, O/U: 47)

Here’s a fun fact about the Bill Belichick family tree. Coming into last Saturday’s game against Mike Vrabel and the Tennessee Titans, the Super Genius was 14-13 against his former assistants/players. He’s now 14-14.

Why hasn’t this success against their former boss translated into more victories against, you know, other good teams for the Belichick coaching tree? Could it be that they somehow know all the dirty, cheaty tricks Belichick pulls and can mitigate it and they can’t do that against other coaches playing by the actual rules?

Who can say?

I mean, I did, but still.

Either way, the fun is over for Tennessee this week. I’m still not sold on the Ravens getting all the way to the big game, but there’s no way John Harbaugh loses to Mike Vrabel in the playoffs. Ravens 42, Titans 16

SUNDAY

HOUSTON TEXANS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-9.5, O/U: 51)

Speaking of the Bill Belichick coaching tree, do you know there are only two guys who coached under BB that he’s been able to beat in the playoffs? Did you know that one of those guys is Bill O’Brien?

The other is Eric Mangini, who, you’ll recall, is the guy that busted the Pats for Spygate. Because, you know, the guys who worked for him know the filthy stuff he tries to get away with.

Anyway, this game is only intriguing because the Texans managed to upset the Chiefs back in Week 6. If you follow the NFL, and since you’re reading this I assume that you do, those results usually flip in the postseason. And you know there’s no way O’Brien has his team ready to play outside, in the snow, against Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City. Chiefs 38, Texans 24

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (-4.5, O/U: 46)

Our last game of the weekend looks like the best one on paper and the line reflects that. A Seattle upset wouldn’t surprise anyone here as Russell Wilson has played out of his mind all season.

But it’s the Pack. And they’re at home. And they’re good again. I don’t see them blowing this one. Packers 27, Seahawks 20.

LAST WEEK

STRAIGHT UP: 1-3
AGAINST THE SPREAD: 1-3

OVERALL

STRAIGHT UP: 168-89-1
AGAINST THE SPREAD: 144-116

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