FRIDAY AFTERNOON QUARTERBACK: NFL WEEK 12

BY ADAM GREENE

Our Week 12 of NFL tomfoolery got off to a rocking start with a Thanksgiving Day tripleheader that saw all three road teams take home the Turduckens.

The day opened with the Chicago Bears knocking off the Detroit Lions 16-14 to send Dan Campbell back to the podium to publicly weep in front of a press corps who, at this point, needs to show up in rain gear.

Jared Goff was an efficient 21 of 25 for just 171 yards and two touchdowns as he re-acquainted himself with his old friend the checkdown. He did have a sack fumble, as he always does. The only thing you can count on more than a Goff sack fumble at midfield is a Goff sack fumble on first and goal in the red zone.

The Dallas Cowboys were upset by the Las Vegas Raiders, pretty much killing everyone’s Turkey Day parlays before they even ate dissert. The Raiders won 36-33 in overtime, with Derek Carr passing for 373 yards and a touchdown. Dak Prescott had 375 yards and two touchdowns in what turned out to be the most watched NFL regular season game since 1990.

In the nightcap, the Buffalo Bills looked at that Thanksgiving spread, the pot luck your family had painstakingly put together and placed upon that sheet metal folding table and decided they knew exactly what it needed — your drunk uncle pile driving your cousin through it and lo, they made it happen with a 31-6 shellacking of the New Orleans Saints.

Does this mean the Bills are fixed or that the Saints are just finally succumbing to all their injury problems? No one knows. It’s what makes this NFL season, in particular so fun and so maddening.

We’ve got more games to pick, so let’s get to it.

Byes: Kansas City Chiefs, Arizona Cardinals

TENNESSEE TITANS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6.5, O/U: 43.5)

The media has lost all self control when it comes to Mac Jones, Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots. The Pats have won five straight with some real victories over legit teams, which is pretty much how every winning squad can claim right before facing the Titans. Tennessee struggles with the garbage fires, but seems to have little issue with squads that hold above .500 records. Titans 27, Patriots 23

NEW YORK JETS AT HOUSTON TEXANS (-2.5, O/U: 44.5)

If you were looking to craft an award for the worst game of the NFL season, this one would deserve its own highlight montage. In fact, NFL Films should put together a special cinematic recap for it. Houston, in spite of being the worst team in the NFL, is currently holding the No. 4 overall draft pick in April 2020’s NFL draft. New York has won two games against legitimate opponents, which just shows someone has made the weirdest Monkey’s Paw wish in human history. They are currently sitting at the No. 2 overall pick, just like last season. The “winner” of this game is undeniably screwed and could fall as far as the sixth overall pick, nothing short of a disaster for either franchise. Zach Wilson is back, which could be good news for either team. I can’t believe I’m about to pick Houston, but I’d literally write the same sentence if I was going with the Jets. Scott Hanson, I hope you have your apologies for tossing to this one written in advance, but since you can skip it when they’re not in the Red Zone, you may not have to worry about it. Texans 17, Jets 13

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT NEW YORK GIANTS (+3, O/U: 45.5)

You know, it’s hard to believe an offensive coaching staff of Jason Garrett, Freddie Kitchens and Derek Dooley has turned out to be a complete disaster. Who woulda thunk it? Philadelphia has won three of its last four and Jalen Hurts has put up pretty much the same numbers in his first 15 starts as Lamar Jackson did in his. There is no excuse to stumble here with a potential seventh seed in the NFC playoffs on the line every week. Eagles 34, Giants 16

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+3, O/U: 53.5)

Speaking of the Giants, Tampa Bay knocking them off after two consecutive bad losses didn’t really prove much other than New York is bad. Which, you know, was a mystery we’d already solved. In their two losses, Tom Brady tossed four picks, including a game clinching interception against the New Orleans Saints. Indy has a defensive line that get pressure and receivers that can certainly match up with Tampa’s depleted secondary. Not to mention, Carson Wentz is a slippery dude and hard to sack. Maybe he’s slathered himself in Invermectin? I see a huge upset here. Colts 31, Buccaneers 24

ATLANTA FALCONS AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+2, O/U: 46)

After years of crafting all sorts of insane methods of losing in their state of the art lab of defeat for the last five seasons, the Falcons have settled on the most simple of methods; just not scoring touchdowns. It’s worked the last two weeks. Still, they should have more than enough firepower to handle Jacksonville, but you should be able to say that about every team the Jags play and somehow they’ve managed to win two games. Falcons 17, Jaguars 13

CAROLINA PANTHERS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS (+2.5, O/U: 41.5)

Cam Newton has had a solid two weeks to prepare now, but he’ll probably be facing his most competent defensive playcaller in Brian Flores. The good thing about Cam’s game is, sometimes you can call everything right to stop him and the dude just bulldozes through it anyway. The dude kept Mike Shula employed as an offensive coordinator for half a decade. I’m riding the Newton hype train until it derails, especially since Tua Tagovailoa isn’t 100 percent. Panthers 27, Dolphins 23

PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (-4.5, O/U: 45)

Cincinnati came back from their bye, knocked off the Raiders and put themselves squarely back in the AFC playoff race. The team they displaced just so happens to be Pittsburgh, who is far from out of it. TJ Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick are both expected to play and Ben Roethlisberger has another week to shake off the rust after missing a game on the COVID-19 list. Still, I like Cincy to stay on track, but I don’t like the spread. Bengals 24, Steelers 23

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT DENVER BRONCOS (+3, O/U: 47.5)

Denver had a bye to decide how they’d want to ride out the rest of the season. Do they want to sim to the end, fire their head coach and use all their draft capital to either start a rebuild or perhaps trade for an available former Pro Bowl quarterback (there could be at least three out there on the block), or do they want to fight it out, make the playoffs as a seventh seed and immediately get sent home by the Ravens, Bills or Chiefs? It’s a tough call, but maybe the Chargers can make it easier on them. Chargers 26, Broncos 20

LOS ANGELES RAMS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (+1, O/U: 47)

Speaking of teams that got a bye at the right time, the Rams were in a two game tailspin, getting dominated in consecutive weeks by the Titans and San Francisco 49ers. Of course, it didn’t help that they lost one of their best offensive weapons, wide receiver Robert Woods, in the process. They’ve had an extra week to install Odell Beckham Jr. into the offense and prepare for a Green Bay team with a less than 100 percent Aaron Rodgers thanks to either a fractured toe or Covid toe. Regardless of which one it is, I really wish I hadn’t been forced to look at his foot. Rams 29, Packers 24

MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-3, O/U: 49)

San Francisco is one of the hottest teams in the league having won three of their last four, including a prime time curb stomping of the Rams on Monday Night Football. But here’s the problem this week. Last Sunday the Vikings beat the Packers on a last second field goal. If you follow Minnesota, you know how rare that is. Not beating Green Bay with a last second field goal, but the Vikings beating anyone on the planet with a last second field goal. I’m not looking up a stat, but my own personal numbers say Minny has missed its last 183 last second field goal attempts coming into last week’s game. Go ahead and cut me the check Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders. I like Minnesota to steal one Sunday against a San Fran team a little too in love with their own press clippings. Vikings 23, 49ers 21

Last week

Straight up: 11-4

Against the spread: 10-5

Season

Straight up: 100-64-1

Against the spread: 84-81

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan

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