Jets’ Adam Gase A Good Value Option for ‘First NFL Coach to Be Fired’ Prop

In Part 1 of this preview we looked at the NFL Prop Betting odds on the ‘First Coach to Be Fired or Resign’ during the 2019 season. Our conclusion is that the second choice on the betting board–Pat Shurmur–is the most likely candidate to be the first coach dismissed. There are a couple of solid values at higher prices further down the board and in this preview we’ll take a look at one of them:

FIRST COACH TO BE FIRED OR RESIGN 2019 NFL SEASON

ADAM GASE/NEW YORK JETS: To understand why Adam Gase is a good value choice to be the first coach fired/resign in the 2019 NFL season it helps to understand a bit of the ownership lineage of the New York Jets. After the death of longtime majority owner Leon Hess the team was purchased by Woody Johnson–his grandfather Robert Wood Johnson II founded a little outfit called Johnson and Johnson. He was well thought of as a manager and had a passion for sports. For most of his tenure, he had a ‘hands off’ approach but starting with the Rex Ryan regime he took more of an active role in running the team and making personnel decisions. Right or wrong, Johnson had owned the team for nearly a decade by that point and certainly had experience.

In 2017, the Johnson was named the US Ambassador to the United Kingdom by President Donald Trump. Once he was confirmed in his new role, he brought his younger brother Christopher Johnson in as a co-owner. The younger Johnson has much of the same power and autonomy as his older brother–including day to day operations and personnel decisions–without the experience. That might explain why he thought Adam Gase was a good hire. Gase had been fired from the Miami Dolphins with a cumulative record of 23-25. Yet somehow, he convinced Christopher Johnson that he was an ‘offensive guru’ and that he was the guy to develop Sam Darnold into a franchise quarterback. Keep in mind that he made little progress with Ryan Tannehill in Miami and that the Dolphins’ offenses regressed during his tenure finishing #24, #25 and #31 in total yardage. Or that the Dolphins were undisciplined on his watch and annually among the league’s most penalized teams.

Gase earned whatever credibility he had as a coach that can ‘mold a quarterback’ and for being an ‘offensive genius’ during a two year stint when he was coordinator for the Denver Broncos. It’s questionable whether the Broncos starting quarterback during his tenure–a 13 year veteran by the name of ‘Peyton Manning’–needed much ‘molding’. Given Manning’s well known tendency to audible at the line of scrimmage it’s also questionable if Gase had significant influence on his quarterback at all.

The New York media went into a feeding frenzy with Gase’s hire and really hasn’t let up. Google his name and you’ll find articles describing him as an ‘annoying lackey’, ‘total nutjob’,and a ‘psycho’. He may or may not have already created a rift between himself and GM Mike Maccagnan. Analysts from around the league criticized the decision to hire Gase. ‘Questionable hire’ and ‘puzzling hire’ were a couple of the nicer things said about him. Another thing you’ll find on Google–the search query ‘Who hired Adam Gase’ is so popular that the search engine helpfully suggests it.

Adam Gase might prove me and the rest of the NFL media wrong by succeeding in New York. Or else he could continue his underachieving ways with his eccentric behavior making him a target for the New York media. There’s little to suggest that he’s got the thick skin and decision making confidence of coaches like Rex Ryan or Bill Parcells. Initially, team owner Christopher Johnson was defiant in the face of his criticisms. Given his lack of time on the job and Gase’s scant resume it’s difficult to see him ‘going to the mat’ in defense of his oddball head coach.

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