Los Angeles Chargers Take On Baltimore Ravens In AFC Wild Card Playoff Action

Yesterday we talked about the ‘lag time’ between a change in performance for a NFL team and the corresponding change in their ‘public perception’. This is another good example here. Just two years ago they were known as the San Diego Chargers and they were awful finishing the 2016 season 5-11. They relocated up the coast a bit and showed some improvement in their new digs in Los Angeles going 9-7 in 2017. 2018 saw dramatic improvement for the Los Angeles Chargers with a 12-4 record but guess what? Nobody really noticed due to the Los Angeles Rams torrid start to the season and resulting 13-3 record.

If you ask the average ‘man on the street’ to name the best NFL football team in Los Angeles there’s a good chance he’ll name the wrong one. The Rams have the marginally better record but the public has yet to figure out what the ‘sharps’ have known for most of the season—the best team in Los Angeles is the one with the lightning bolts on their helmets. One reason that the Chargers may still be ‘below the radar’ is that they don’t dominate in one phase of the game. They’re a rare NFL team that is extremely competent in all of them. Try these numbers on for size: The Chargers finished the 2018 regular season ranked #11 in total offense, #10 in passing offense, #15 in rushing offense and in a sixth place tie for best scoring offense at 26.8 PPG. On defense, the Chargers ranked #9 in total defense, #9 in passing defense, #9 in rushing defense and # 8 in scoring defense giving up 20.6 PPG. They could have done better in turnover differential—at +1 they’re in a multiway tie for #15 in the league but at least they’re in the black. That can’t be said for Baltimore with a -3 turnover differential putting them at #22 in the NFL.

The Baltimore Ravens were going nowhere at the start of this season. 9 games in they were 4-5 and faced with the prospect of replacing injured starting quarterback Joe Flacco. Enter rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson. Jackson will never be mistaken for Drew Brees but he’s a heady player and a dangerous rushing threat. Since Jackson took over Baltimore has gone 6-1 and turned a lost season into another playoff appearance. Jackson did what was asked of him and did it well but there’s a decent chance that Baltimore would have gone on a winning run in the last seven games anyway. They did have one nice victory over the Chargers but their other five victories came against five sub .500 teams– Cincinnati, Oakland, Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Cleveland.

Jackson will get the start here with Joe Flacco relegated to backup status. From a philosophical standpoint it might be the right move—Jackson hasn’t done anything to ‘lose the job’. It’s a tough thing to process intellectually, however, since the Ravens will go with a quarterback getting his first playoff start over a proven postseason commodity. Flacco shook the reputation of being unable to ‘win the big games’ years ago and in his last 10 playoff games has thrown 24 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions with a 104.1 passer rating. He’s thrown 2+ touchdown passes in eight straight playoff games which happens to be the longest such run in pro football history.

The conventional wisdom is that Flacco will be gone after this season anyway so from a developmental standpoint it makes since to go with Jackson. This might be proven to be the right move a few years down the road but it won’t help the Ravens win this game against a very dangerous Los Angeles Chargers team that might be the most balanced squad in the NFL on both sides of the ball. Making the Chargers all the more dangerous is their proven ability to win on the road. At one point, there was a trendy handicapping angle to play against West Coast teams traveling East—particularly when they were playing early start times games. If you tried that ‘strategy’ against the Chargers you’d be working at 7-11 by this point. Los Angeles went 7-1 on the road this season winning games in every time zone. They even won a game on Greenwich Mean Time when they beat the Tennessee Titans at Wembley Stadium in London. Their ability to play on the road isn’t a fluke—they’ve gone 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 away games. They’re the better team and they have no trouble winning on the road. The three points is a gift.

BET LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +3 OVER BALTIMORE RAVENS