Los Angeles Rams Face Dallas Cowboys In NFC Divisional Playoffs

The typical strategy when handicapping a NFL playoff matchup is to look for the side undervalued by the betting public. That’s tough to do in this matchup since both teams are overpriced relative to the NFL betting line. This isn’t to say that they’re not good teams—only that they’re not quite as good as the ‘public’ thinks they are and thus the betting lines on their games are shaded accordingly. The good news in this matchup is that reality means that the two teams status as ‘overvalued’ cancels each other out to some degree.

The Dallas Cowboys earned this appearance with only their second playoff victory under head coach Jason Garrett in his seven years at the helm. They held off a feisty Seattle team thanks to a strong performance from quarterback Dak Prescott whom I thought could struggle against the Seahawks’ more experienced quarterback Russell Wilson. This is a bigger challenge, however, and it’s tough to see the Cowboys being able to trade points with one of the true offensive machines in the NFL. When it comes to offensive output in the 2018 NFL there’s the Rams and Saints and then everyone else. The Rams finished #2 in total offense (421.1 YPG), #5 in passing offense (281.7 YPG), #3 in rushing offense (139.4 yards per game) and #2 in scoring offense (32.9 yards per game). The most frightening thing about the Los Angeles offense is their balanced attack centered around running back Todd Gurley and quarterback Jared Goff. Goff should benefit from the home field advantage—he’s got a 22 to 3 home TD to INT ration and plenty of dangerous targets. Throw in the best special teams in the league and the Rams are a tough team to deal with.

Important to note how Dallas struggled when stepping up and class in recent years. In their last 19 games against opponents with winning records they’ve gone 6-13 ATS. The Cowboys weren’t’ a good road team this season going 3-5 SU/4-4 ATS. They’re also off a tough game against the Seahawks while the Rams are extremely well rested. In addition to the team’s ‘off week’ thanks to a first round bye, Los Angeles sat running back Gurley for the last two games of the regular season so he’ll be as close to 100% as is possible for this time of the year.

Historically, NFL teams have had to go through a ‘learning process’ when it comes to success in the playoffs and winning a Super Bowl title. The expectation at one point was that a team would have to get to the Super Bowl and lose before they could expect to win the big game. That’s no longer the case in the modern NFL and the Rams are completely legit. Sean McVay is already among the best coaches in the league—sharp, quick witted, innovative—and he’s capable to taking this team all the way. The same can’t really be said for Jason Garrett. I’ve always liked Garrett and think he’s a decent coach but he might have reached the limits of his potential. The same can’t be said for McVay.

Tough to lay a touchdown in the NFL playoffs but it looks like everything in this matchup is pointing to the better rested Rams. They’ve got more weapons, are playing at home and facing a team that has struggled against elite teams and particularly in the postseason. Los Angeles will eventually have to get past New Orleans to earn a Super Bowl appearance but expect them to win and cover here to set up a rematch with the Saints in the NFC Championship Game.

BET LOS ANGELES RAMS -7 OVER DALLAS COWBOYS