MIAMI DOLPHINS 2022 WIN PREDICTION

BY ADAM GREENE

Coming off a winning 2020 campaign, there were plenty of reasons for hope for the Miami Dolphins a season ago. A win out the gate, 17-16, over the hated New England Patriots bode well for the year.

That good feeling didn’t last a week. A 35-0 blowout by the Buffalo Bills was followed by six more straight losses, including an embarrassing 23-20 defeat by the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars.

Miami turned it around in a big way, winning eight of their last nine with only a 34-3 to the Tennessee Titans, a team that would land the No. 1 seed in the AFC, blemishing their record down the final two and a half months of the season. They would post another 9-win season, but it wouldn’t be enough to keep Brian Flores employed.

The problem with the Dolphins was they couldn’t stand with the elite teams. They did sweep the Pats, a middling AFC Wild Card and knocked off the Baltimore Ravens with Lamar Jackson sidelined. Every other victory came against opponents who would finish with a losing record, with the exception of the New Orleans Saints, who were starting Subway Sandwich artists at QB when the Dolphins beat them 20-3 right after Christmas.

In every other game against legit contenders, Miami was outclassed. Still, it was that stupid loss to Jacksonville that ultimately cost them a playoff spot and sent Flores to the unemployment line.

Regardless of the narrative, Tua Tagovailoa played winning football. He had a 7-5 record as a starter and the team went 2-3 without under center. He completed 67.8 percent of his passes for 2,653 yards, 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions and rushed for three more scores.

Myles Gaskin led the running backs with 612 yards and three touchdowns, adding 49 receptions and 234 receiving yard to go with four receiving TDs. Jaylen Waddle had a break out year at receiver, hauling in 104 catches for 1,105 yards and six scores. Mike Gesicki did the same at tight end with 73 catches for 780 yards and two touchdowns.

The defense finished the year No. 16 in points allowed and No. 15 in yards allowed. Emmanuel Ogbah led the team with nine sacks, but Jaelan Phillips was right behind him with 8.5. Xavien Howard landed in the Pro Bowl with five picks, one defensive touchdown and 50 tackles.

MIAMI DOLPHINS

Last season: 9-8

Odds: Over 8.5 wins (-170), Under 8.5 wins (+140)

2022 NFL Draft: Channing Tindall, LB, Georgia (Round 3), Erik Ezukanma, WR, Texas Tech (Round 4), Cameron Goode, OLB, California (Round 7), Skylar Thompson, QB, Kansas State (Round 7)

2022 Additions: Terron Armstead, LT (free agent), Cedrick Wilson, WR (free agent), Connor Williams, Center (free agent), Chase Edmonds, RB (free agent), Keion Crossen, CB (free agent), Alec Ingold, FB (free agent), Teddy Bridgewater, QB (free agent), Melvin Ingram, Edge (free agent), Raheem Mostert, RB (free agent), Sony Michel, RB (free agent), Thomas Morstead, Punter (free agent), Trent Sherfield, WR (free agent), Mohamed Sanu, WR (free agent)

Projected Starters

Offense

QB: Tua Tagovailoa

RB: Chase Edmonds

WR: Tyreek Hill

WR: Jaylen Waddle

WR: Cedrick Wilson, Jr.

TE: Mike Gesicki

FB: Alec Ingold

LT: Terron Armstead

LG: Liam Eichenberg

C: Connor Williams

RG: Robert Hunt

RT: Austin Jackson

Defense

LDE: Christian Wilkins

NT: Raekwon Davis

RDE: Emmanuel Ogbah

WLB: Melvin Ingram III

LILB: Elenadon Roberts

RILB: Jerome Baker

SLB: Jaelan Phillips

CB: Xavien Howard

CB: Byron Jones

SS: Brandon Jones

FS: Jevon Holland

Special Teams

PK: Jason Sanders

P: Thomas Morstead

PR: Tyreek Hill

KR: Raheem Mostert

PREVIEW

I wasn’t a big fan of firing Brian Flores after consecutive winning seasons, but I don’t run the Dolphins. I have no issue at all with bringing in former San Francisco 49ers assistant Mike McDaniel, and, considering the offensive struggles and issues that have marked the franchise over the last two seasons, maybe moving to a more O-minded coach is a good thing. Still, Flores got a raw deal and his litigation against the NFL can’t be ignored.

McDaniel and general manager Chris Grier had some work to do and started with a monster trade with the Kansas City Chiefs that brought Tyreek Hill to the team. It cost them multiple first rounders, but now there’s no excuse on offense. It’s a make or break year for Tua Tagovailoa and, since I am a betting man, I’m wagering that he makes it, even if Miami doesn’t reach the postseason.

McDaniels has brought in every starting level running back in the league it seems, with an RB depth chart starting with Chase Edmunds before going to Raheem Mostert and Sony Michel (who have three Super Bowl appearances and two rings between them) along with Myles Gaskin. The Dolphins are refusing not to run the ball.

The problem for Miami is, of course, a loaded AFC. If this team was in the NFC East, not only would they make the playoffs, they’d probably win the East and host a playoff game. In the AFC, there’s a great chance they’ll be watching from home again in spite of a winning record for the third straight year.

The first month’s schedule is brutal. They open hosting the Patriots, which I don’t think will be a problem. After that, they play at the Baltimore Ravens, host the Bills and then go to the Cincinnati Bengals and that’s three pretty monstrous problems. I don’t see any way Miami doesn’t start 1-3.

It gets easier afterward, with winnable games against the New York Jets, Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Steelers, Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears and Deshaun Watson-less Cleveland Browns all before the bye. They could enter their break 5-5 or even 6-4.

Post bye, they have the Houston Texans, before getting the 49ers, the Los Angeles Chargers, Bills again and Green Bay Packers.

They finish at New England and at the Jets, two wins as far as I can see. It’s that 49ers through Packers stretch that will probably determine if they’ll make the playoffs or are watching from South Beach.

Final record prediction: 9-8

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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